An interesting National Public Radio POS (R)/GQR (D) poll (3/10-14, MoE +/- 3.4) was released yesterday looking at a number of issues as well as attitudes towards Congress and Obama.
A new NPR poll shows that President Obama's job approval rating is still high — 59 percent — and among likely voters surveyed, the Democratic position on issues was favored across the board. Still, there's some reason for Republicans to hope.
In NPR's first survey since the election, a bipartisan team of pollsters — Republican Glen Bolger and Democrat Stan Greenberg — found that a lot has changed. Despite a major economic crisis, far fewer voters think the country is on the wrong track: 63 percent, down from 80 percent in the previous NPR national poll.
At this stage in Obama's Presidency, many pollsters think the right/wrong track is perhaps the best yardstick to judge the electorate, and multiple polls have shown various stages of improvement.
Alos covered in the NPR write-up is this:
Historically, the party that holds the White House and Congress loses seats in midterm elections. But Greenberg points to other findings in the survey, which was conducted March 10-14.
"Everything else in this poll points toward much more dramatic shifts toward the Democrats," he said. "On all of the arguments we've looked at in this survey, on virtually every single question, Democrats enjoy about a 10- to 12-point advantage."
Let's look at a few of these issues after Obama approval:
Popular with Democrats: check
Intensity favors Obama: check
Wins indies: check
On the most important issue of the day, the news is more mixed, with Obama getting approval on the economy, but for the first time, not winning over indies (bears watching). Spending money makes indies nervous:
Popular with Democrats: check
Intensity favors Obama: mixed
Wins indies: mixed
On the issue of Congress, the approval is "up" to 36% from 22%, but Congress still gets dismal grades, including from independents.On the important issues (click links to read question wording), health care gets a slight Dem nod (53-42), respondents prefer Dem positions on budget and taxes (52-43), and also prefers Dem positions of the budget and energy by 53-42. Dems even carry the issue of the deficit by 51-45.
In one of the few bright spots for Republicans, the generic Congressional ballot is split evenly 42-42, but as Stan Greenburg notes above, the issues currently favor the Dems.
Glen Bolger, the R pollster involved, has his own take here:
On the issues section of the interview schedule, the Dem wins all of the issue contrasts by six-eleven points. However, the GOPer wins among Independents by a handful of points on each.
These results are striking for several reasons
- It underscores Democrat unity that exists right now.
- It shows that we still aren’t trusted on issues, despite the softening of public opinion toward the Dems.
- It shows GOPers CAN make gains with Independents.
Overall, this is in line with other polls (pollster.com currently has Obama's job approval at 59.9, and CBS had Obama at62 yesterday), with interesting issues data to go along with the job approval numbers for the President and Congress. All the polls indicate Obama down a few points from his peak, but still in good position, and capturing majorities on his programs (which, nonetheless aren't as popular as he is.) Independents remain the group to watch. It's still all about the economy... and nothing about AIG bonuses will change that with the public.