A late-breaking story in today's Haaretz quotes Labor MK and outgoing agriculture minister Shalom Simhon as saying that Labor "cannot afford" the coalition offer made to Labor by presumptive Prime Minister Binyamin "Bibi" Netanyahu.
"Labor members have an iron will, as well as a value system opposed to that of Netanyahu and [presumptive Foreign Minister and Yisrael Beiteinu head Avigdor] Lieberman," another Labor Knesset member, Shelly Yachimovich said. A Labor Party panel will likely meet Thursday to decide whether Labor should join a coalition that currently consists of Bibi and Lieberman and their 42 mandates, plus Shas with its 11 mandates, having now been promised the education portfolio. Here's why Ehud Barak should give Bibi Labor's 13 mandates.
If Labor throws in its lot with Bibi, then a coalition of the Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, and Labor will have 66 seats — not a big coalition, but big enough to form a government. This is going to free Bibi's hand with regard to the very parties that he claimed constituted a 65-seat "national camp." Three parties, the Ashkenazi-haredi United Torah Judaism, ultra-nationalist National Union, and religious-Zionist Jewish Home have another 12 mandates to throw in altogether, and Bibi can tell them to join or be damned. Let's say that the haredim join and National Union (Jewish Home isn't likely to join for having been denied the education portfolio). Now Bibi has a 75-seat government. Even if Labor bolted at some point, or if Shas bolted (more likely), Bibi would still be able to hold onto power.
So why would I suggest that Labor join the coalition?
First, the "left wing" of the Labor party may bolt the party. This won't prevent Bibi from forming a government, but it will have two positive dividends: (1) It will be a slimmer government and more likely to fail sooner; and (2) The Labor Party members who leave Labor will likely team up with the social democrat party Meretz. Let's crunch the numbers conservatively: Say less than half of Labor leaves the party, or 6 of its 13 current members. They join Meretz's 3 seats, for a total of 9. Now Meretz is the fifth largest party in the Knesset. Labor would drop from fourth to sixth. This would be the end of Labor.
So why is it a good thing that Labor collapse once and for all? As I wrote last month, Labor stopped representing the left wing in Israel some time ago. And the peace process is moribund even under Labor's leadership, despite the fact that it was Labor that devised Oslo. A final status arrangement has a better chance of (a) being negotiated and (b) succeeding with Kadima at the helm rather than Labor. So with Labor out of the way, Kadima can grow larger with Labor "moderates" and so can the left wing in Israel under the aegis of Meretz.
Finally, in some ways, a short Netanyahu prime ministry may be the best thing that the pro–peace process opposition may need to regroup and score a real win in the next elections. Put reconciliation with Israeli Arabs at the top of the list; the rancor between the Arab parties and Kadima because of the winter Gaza war needs to be healed if any peace process will succeed, not to mention real civic reform for Israeli minorities of all ethnic backgrounds and faiths.