Research 2000's latest poll for Daily Kos tests Connecticut senior Senator Chris Dodd against three opponents: former Rep. Rob Simmons, state Sen. Sam Caligiuri, and talking head Larry Kudlow, who has said he won't run.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 4%.
Chris Dodd (D) 45
Rob Simmons (R) 40
Chris Dodd (D) 51
Sam Caligiuri (R) 30
These numbers are substantially better for Dodd than in a recent Quinnipiac poll, where he trailed Simmons by one point -- 42 to 43. Still, it continues to look like a tough race for 2010.
As for favorables, it's difficult to compare a politician known statewide, as Dodd is, with challengers on whom many fewer people have an opinion -- in Caligiuri's case, 82% of those polled had no opinion. At 47% to 40%, Dodd's favorables are anemic, but at least put him in the black with 7% net favorability. On the other hand, Simmons' faves are legitimately great, almost as high as Dodd's at 41%, with just 18% having an unfavorable opinion of Simmons.
Dodd is the most endangered incumbent in the Senate at the moment. He has certain things going for him: he's got a famous name, formidable fundraising ability, and Connecticut is a Democratic-leaning state. On the other hand, he hasn't been battle-tested by a series of tough races, as Simmons has.
This will be the toughest race of Dodd's long career, and he'd better be up for the challenge. He's still slightly favored, but if he doesn't watch out be could end up like Elizabeth Dole.
We've also got some tantalizing numbers on possible 2012 matchups, which show a tough battle ahead for "independent" "Democrat" Joe Lieberman...