NY-Gov, NY-Sen: Paterson Toast, Cuomo Invincible, Gillibrand Leading

It's over for New York Governor David Paterson. Or if it isn't, he needs to pull, as James Carville would say, the greatest comeback since Lazarus.

Marist College. 2/26-27. Registered voters. MoE 3%.

Would you rate the job Governor David Paterson is doing as excellent, good, fair or poor?

Excellent/Good 26
Fair/Poor 71

Those numbers are inferior to Eliot Spitzer's approvals right before he resigned amid a prostitution scandal.

If faced with a primary challenge from New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, whom Paterson passed over for a Senate appointment, Cuomo would murder him:

Democratic Primary (MoE 5.5%)

Andrew Cuomo (D) 62
David Paterson (D) 26

Even if Paterson were to survive until the general election, Republican Rudy Giuliani leads him by 15 points (though Paterson edges former Republican Rep. Rick Lazio, who lost a Senate race to Hillary Clinton in 2000 despite outspending her significantly).

Rudy Giuliani (R) 53
David Paterson (D) 38

David Paterson (D) 47
Rick Lazio (R) 35

Cuomo leads Giuliani 56-39, and leads Lazio 71-20. Those are Spitzeresque numbers (well, the 2006 edition of Spitzer, anyway).

Oddly enough, after the convoluted U.S. Senate appointment process, it's Cuomo who comes out smelling like a rose.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is also polled. Her numbers are OK; most voters don't know much about here, with over 50% having no opinion of her.

Nevertheless, she leads all potential challengers at this stage, including Democratic Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Republican Rep. Peter King, and former Republican Gov. George Pataki.  

Democratic Primary (MoE 5.5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 36
Carolyn McCarthy (D) 33

General Election

Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 45
George Pataki (R) 41

Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 49
Peter King (R) 28

It seems very likely that in January 2011, Kirsten Gillibrand and Andrew Cuomo will be working at the highest levels of government, while David Paterson, the man who once held their fate in his hands, will be out of work.