PA-Sen: Toomey Will Primary Specter

Pennsylvania senior Sen. Arlen Specter is in large trouble.

The Allentown Morning Call reported Thursday that two friends of Toomey's have said the Club for Growth chief has decided to enter the race. [...]

The paper quotes Richard Thulin, leader of the Lehigh Valley Republican Network, saying in an e-mail to supporters that "Pat's formal announcement will be forthcoming.

"Interesting news," he wrote. "Pat Toomey asked me to let you know that he has decided to challenge Arlen Specter."

Reached late Thursday, Thulin confirmed the details of the e-mail, as first reported by the Morning Call.

Specter barely beat Toomey in 2004, and Republican registration since then has shifted dramatically away from the moderates (many of whom switched parties to vote in the hotly contested 2008 Democratic Presidential primary) and towards the Toomey boys.

He's going to have one hell of a race on his hands trying to win this primary. If he loses, Democrats stand an excellent chance at a pickup against a candidate (Toomey) who is essentially a far brighter version of Rick Santorum.

Can Specter pull a Lieberman, if he loses the primary? Not according to 25 P.S. 2911.1:

"Any person who is a registered and enrolled member of a party during any period of time beginning with thirty (30) days before the primary and extending through the general or municipal election of that same year shall be ineligible to be the candidate of a political body in a general or municipal election held in that same year nor shall any person who is a registered and enrolled member of a party be eligible to be the candidate of a political body for a special election."

Seems pretty clear.

It's possible for Specter to win this primary, and it's more than likely he'd ride his popularity among swing voters in the Philadelphia suburbs to general-election victory, if he did beat Toomey.

But if Toomey wins - and he's got a great shot- he'll be another Club for Growth embarrassment DOA in the general election.

Will we lose Specter on key legislation like the Employee Free Choice Act as he swings to the right? It's possible, but Specter's arrogance may save the day; he's always done pretty much exactly as he pleased in the Senate.