Election law expert Rick Hasen has his thoughts on the decision:
- A reasonable tone and tenor. This is a careful, unanimous opinion the a "tripartisan" 3-judge court. It makes findings of fact and conclusions of law that on first read appear reasonable and conservative. The opinion considers the major arguments made by Coleman and rejects them in a detailed and measured way. It is the kind of opinion that is unlikely to be disturbed on appeal by either the Minnesota Supreme Court or the United States Supreme Court.
- The Equal Protection analysis. The court has it both ways in this opinion. On the one hand, it states that it is without jurisdiction to rule on the equal protection argument of Coleman (more on the equal protection argument in this Slate piece. It is limited under the state contest laws in simply deciding who had more legal votes. But despite that point, the court made findings that the election was conducted under uniform standards, and that the treatment of absentee ballots did not differ all that much from county to county. The court then included a detailed and careful memorandum exploring the various equal protection issues, especially the Bush v. Gore issues. The court distinguished Bush v. Gore in some reasonable ways. As I predicted, they rejected a reading of the case that would require the counting of further illegal votes to deal with any illegal votes that had already been cast, and they rejected an argument that any lack of perfection in the casting and counting of votes constitutes a violation of equal protection. It is an impressive and sensitive handling of the equal protection issue [...]
- What's next?. Coleman has promised an appeal to the state Supreme Court, but I would not count on it. He might decide that his political future in Minnesota requires him to bow out gracefully at this point. The countervailing factor is the national interests of the Republican party, which want to keep a 59th Democrat out of the Senate for as long as possible. If Coleman appeals, it is possible that the Minnesota Supreme Court would reach the equal protection issues more directly, but even if it did, I'd be surprised to see a different result [...]
I'd be shocked if Coleman skips the appeal to the MN Supreme Court, though a unanimous decision makes it that much tougher to justify. Sure, being a sore loser might not help in future elections, but being a rare incumbent ousted from office, and by a comedian no less!, also doesn't help in future elections. His career is over. He might as well let the national Republicans continue bankrolling the lawyers in order to keep that 59th Democratic vote out of the Senate. I mean, he's got his sweet "job" with the Republican Jewish Coalition, where they're apparently paying him to sit in court and do nothing all day. If this case ends, he might actually have to work for real!
It'd be nice if Coleman decides to spare the people of his state more bullshit and give them the two senators they deserve, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.
Hasen also dismisses the chances of a federal lawsuit, determining that it'd be pretty hopeless, and notes that it wouldn't preclude the issuance of Franken's election certificate.