SurveyUSA has released their first poll of the hotly contested race for Governor of Virginia, a race which hasn't been publicly polled in three weeks prior to SUSA's.
Their results are quite different from any we've seen before: for the first time, they show one of the Democratic candidates leading the primary field outside the margin of error, as former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe enjoys a 16-point lead over State Sen. Creigh Deeds and former Delegate Brian Moran.
SurveyUSA. 4/25-27. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (No trend lines)
Democratic Primary
Terry McAuliffe (D) 38
Creigh Deeds (D) 22
Brian Moran (D) 22
Moran has led narrowly in the last couple of polls (Research 2000 for Daily Kos, and Public Policy Polling). Again, it's been about three weeks since the PPP poll, and it's very possible that McAuliffe has, in fact, surged into the lead.
A 16-point lead, however, is pretty striking, and deserves to be treated with some skepticism until confirmed. SUSA is a very good and widely respected pollster, and so maybe they're on to something. McAuliffe has had a good couple of weeks, and Moran (formerly the frontrunner) is low on money. So it's perfectly conceivable that McAuliffe is now in the lead.
Still, it's doubtful that his lead, if it exists, is actually 16 points. SUSA does push leaners pretty hard, and that may be a factor, but this result is pretty far from most of the polling we've seen.
We'll see.
SUSA shows Moran with a big lead in Northern Virginia, polling 47%. This is in line with most other estimates, and may well be accurate. Given the Democratic base in Northern Virginia, that should put him over the top...except that SUSA shows him to be essentially a non-factor in other parts of the state. Meanwhile, McAuliffe pulls a whopping 62% in Southeast Virginia (including Hampton Roads, where he has campaigned and advertised heavily), which helps to balance out Moran's formidable NoVA edge.
SUSA has also polled general-election matchups:
Bob McDonnell (R) 44
Creigh Deeds (D) 39
Bob McDonnell (R) 46
Terry McAuliffe (D) 39
Bob McDonnell (R) 46
Brian Moran (D) 34
The Rasmussen poll had Deeds at 30%, 15 points behind McDonnell, which strains credulity (Deeds is the only one to have run statewide before and lost to McDonnell by less than 400 votes in the 2005 AG race).
Other than that, the Rasmussen numbers are fairly similar to SUSA's, though they show Moran in a slightly better position than McAuliffe. SUSA's are the worst numbers for Moran, both in the primary and general matchups, that we've seen.
The general-election numbers are much more in line with other polling we've seen than the primary numbers are. We'll have to wait for new results to get a sense of whether McAuliffe is in fact pulling away, or whether this poll is just way off.