Congratulations to Vermont, which is now the fourth state to offer full marriage equality to its residents, and the first to do it via the legislature. Being a Dean partisan back in the day, I remember vividly how controversial it was when the state's judiciary imposed civil unions in the state. Remember, Dean had to walk around in a bulletproof vest for some time given the howls of outrage and the death threats that now-mundane move generated.
Today, just six years later, civil unions is the "reasonable" position. Crazy.
Nate looked at the factors that influence gay marriage initiatives, and found that just three could predict their success or failure:
- The year in which the amendment was voted upon;
- The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
- The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.
Based on those factors, Nate set out to predict the tipping-point year in which each state would see a successful effort to legalize gay marriage via ballot initiative. States with asterisks have already passed amendments banning gay marriages:
2009 (now)
Vermont
New Hampshire
Massachusetts
Maine
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Nevada*
Washington
Alaska*
New York
Oregon*
2010
California*
Hawaii
Montana*
New Jersey
Colorado*
2011
Wyoming
Delaware
Idaho*
Arizona*
2012
Wisconsin*
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Illinois
2013
Michigan*
Minnesota
Iowa
Ohio*
Utah*
Florida*
2014
New Mexico
North Dakota*
Nebraska*
South Dakota*
2015
Indiana
Virginia*
West Virginia
Kansas*
2016
Missouri*
2018
Texas*
2019
North Carolina
Louisiana*
Georgia*
2020
Kentucky*
2021
South Carolina*
Oklahoma*
2022
Tennessee*
Arkansas*
2023
Alabama*
2024
Mississippi*
We've definitely seen that time is the bigot's worst enemy. Just look at the exit polls from California's Prop 8 last year, which passed 52-48:
Yes No
18-29 (20%) 39 61
30-44 (28%) 55 45
45-64 (36%) 54 46
65+ (15%) 61 39
Interesting that 18-29 and those 65 and older are exact mirror images of each other. The problem for the forces of bigotry, however, is that the older cohort is dying off, while the newer generation will be around for a while, and those 18-year-olds entering the voter pool are even more pro-gay rights every single year. You can certainly see why the statistics show a two-point increase in support for gay marriage every year.
The bigots know this, which is why they've spent the last decade pushing their gay marriage bans in as many states as possible. As the country becomes more enlightened, they want to do everything they can to slow the march of progress.
New England is leading the way, and soon California and New York will join them. Then it's just a matter of time before the rest of the country follows.
Update: This is remarkable, from the Democratic Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate:
As a matter of fact, last Friday night, I hugged my wife. You know Ive been married for 37 years. I hugged my wife. I felt like our love was just a little more meaningful last Friday night because thousands of other Iowa citizens could hug each other and have the state recognize their love for each other.
No, Senator McKinley, I will not co-sponsor a leadership bill with you.