Dick Morris, goposaur, stupider than K-Lo, or tied for first place?
When the Obama administration crashes and burns, with approval ratings that fall through the floor, political scientists can trace its demise to its first hundred days. While Americans are careful not to consign a presidency they desperately need to succeed to the dustbin of history, the fact is that this president has moved — on issue after issue — in precisely the opposite direction of what the people want him to do.
I could waste time refuting this tripe, but better yet, I'd rather remind you guys of Dick Morris wankery. Like, for example, his apparently remarkable ability to look into the future:
By not putting Hillary on his ticket and then giving her a primetime speech at the convention on Tuesday, Obama has the worst of both possible worlds. The better Hillary’s speech, the more people ask why she was passed over for vice president. This column is written before Mrs. Clinton spoke on Tuesday night, but she will not blow this opportunity to shine in front of a larger national audience than she has ever had. She will crisply articulate her programs and proposals and will come across as forceful, committed and energetic.
Impressive! And so, so stupid. How about some baseless assertions in the face of existing data?
Virtually all the polls agreed that Obama would win 52-53 percent of the vote, but the surveys varied in the amount of undecideds they found. On Election Day, virtually every undecided voter went to McCain, and Obama's final vote share was no more and no less than the 52-53 percent the surveys had predicted. This unanimity among undecided voters is attributable to the endgame of groups like GOPtrust.com and NewsMax.com.
Reality, from the national exit poll:
When did you decide who to vote for?
Today Obama 50, McCain 45
Last three days: Obama 47, McCain 52
Last week: Obama 48, McCain 50
Well, maybe data isn't his strong suit. So he makes up facts and pretends to see the future. What about his ability to grasp demographic trends?
The shift in the attitudes of young people may be directly related to the tax issue, brought home by a McCain advertisement featuring Joe the Plumber. Younger voters, trying to make their way in their careers, are more sensitive to changes in taxes than older people, many of whom has retired from the labor force.
Woah. Ugh. That was ugly. He actually wrote that Joe the Plumber was going to deliver younger voters to McCain? Wow. Of course, young people voted for Obama by a 66-32 margin, so ... yeah. Not a great call.
Okay, so maybe he can't tell the future, read data, or do proper analysis. But being a "political analyst extraordinaire" (as Newsmax called him), you'd think he could at least put forth a halfway rational pre-election electoral map analysis, right? Sigh....
As I noted at the time:
- He thought Arkansas was lean Obama. McCain won it by 20 points. Not a single poll ever showed the state competitive.
- He thought Louisiana was a tossup. Obama lost it by 19 points. Again, except for one suspect poll late in the game, no other polling showed the state competitive.
- Tennessee as a tossup? In whose fevered mind? McCain won it by 17 points, and that was probably closer than many sane people expected.
- Kentucky was just "lean McCain"? I guess that's better than calling it Lean Obama or tossup, but at a 17-point loss, it was always a solid McCain state.
- In fact, of Morris' "tossup" states, only North Carolina really deserved that billing, and ended up a 50-50 split (with the narrowest of Obama advantages). Of the other four, three ended up double-digit McCain wins, and Arizona almost was at nine points.
- How was Indiana -- with reams of polling showing it neck and neck -- "lean McCain" when the likes of Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia were "tossups"?
- Morris blew Missouri (like me) and Indiana, but that's less interesting than their relative rankings compared to the likes of Tennessee and Arkansas. If you're going to have a "tossup" category (which is a cop out when making predictions), then you had to throw Missouri into it. No way it was "lean Obama" when your definition of "tossup" includes the likes of Tennessee and Louisiana. Same with Indiana.
Apparently, one has to be merely a blithering idiot to be called a "political analysts extraordinaire" by the morons at Newsmax. So let's see -- he can't read the future or predict it, and he can't analyze or read data. So yes, please Mr. Dick Morris, tell us how Obama will inevitably crash because he's so out-of-sync with Americans that Americans are sure to repudiate him!
In fact, why stop there? Why not throw in a prediction that 15 Democratic senators will switch parties to mark Mitch McConnell's triumphant ascension to majority leader status? If you're going to drift off into fantasy land, you might as well make it good!
Still, that Obama stuff is great material for me to work with, and will let me to recycle this post every year, mocking your remarkable ability to pull shit out of your ass with legal regard to things as "reality" and "facts".
Update: Changed title per feedback in the comments.