Jonathan Allen at Congressional Quarterly brings news over the weekend that despite Long Island Democrat Steve Israel's decision to forgo a Senate race against appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, one of Gillibrand's other potential rivals is not going anywhere...yet.
While Carolyn Maloney, the ninth-term Congresswoman who represents some of the most affluent precincts in Manhattan, has not officially announced a primary challenge to Gillibrand, CQ reports that she has told colleagues she is planning to make a go of it.
One thing is clear: Israel's decision (prompted by a personal entreaty from President Obama is not factoring into Maloney's electoral calculations:
"I respect the choices that every member makes about their future. Steve Israel's decision to not run for the U.S. Senate was his choice to make, but it doesn't affect my decision-making process"
Of course, Maloney's calculations may get complicated by the presence of a THIRD Democrat in the race. Seventh-term Rep. Carolyn McCarthy of Long Island is another possible candidate.
McCarthy could prove incredibly hard to dissuade. Her entire political career was launched on the issue of guns. Her initial foray into elective politics came in 1995, when she decided to go after Republican incumbent Dan Frisa. Frisa had voted for a repeal of the assault weapons ban in Congress, raising the ire of McCarthy, who had testified before the House on that very issue. McCarthy, of course, lost her husband (and almost her son) in the 1993 Long Island rail massacre.
Gillibrand, who represented upstate New York before being appointed to the Senate by Gov. Paterson, earned an "A" rating from the NRA in her single full term in the House. Ergo, it is pretty clear to see why McCarthy might be hard to talk down on this race.
Possibly the hottest debate that could emanate from this New York Senate race is the role of the President in this early stage of the campaign. Obama talking Steve Israel out of a Gillibrand challenge is an intriguing move. It will no doubt have supporters, who will be eager to have the Democratic incumbent save resources for what could be a well-financed and energetic Republican challenge (the two names mentioned most often are former Governor George Pataki and Long Island Republican Congressman Peter King). Others will be critical, saying that (a) primaries do not necessarily hurt the candidate that emerges from them and (b) the voters, and not the party's political leaders, should decide who best represents the interests of the Democratic Party in the U.S. Senate.
What also remains to be seen, and will be quite interesting to watch, is whether this was a one-off act of intervention by the Obama administration, or whether the President will be active in trying to shape the Democratic field for 2010. Future moves are tougher to gauge: for example, in Illinois, Obama's close relationship with state treasurer (and erstwhile Obama basketball teammate) Alexi Giannoulias is well known, but local businessman (and RFK progeny) Chris Kennedy was being talked up by none other than former Illinois Congressman Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief of staff. Therefore, intervention in the land of Lincoln (aside from maybe punting Roland Burris to the curb) is going to be infinitely more complicated.