From
The State via
Swing State Project:
State Sen. Tommy Moore is the "right kind" of Democrat to beat Republican Gov. Mark Sanford next year if he gets the money, experts say.
Moore certainly has the credentials -- 26 years of state legislative experience, an understanding of state government and a moderate to conservative voting record.
"He is the type who can get elected statewide," says Danielle Vinson, a political scientist at Furman University.
If Democrats hope to make any gains in 2006, now is the time to do it. It's an off-year election. There is no presidential race or U.S. Senate contest to draw GOP voters to the polls.
"This is a state election, straight out," notes Francis Marion University analyst Neal Thigpen, a GOP activist.
Democrats tend to fare better in such elections.
As a South Carolinian (although one living in exile in Los Angeles), I have some thoughts on this development...
First of all, thank goodness someone is looking at South Carolina! Thank you, thank you,
thank you Bob Brigham and SSP for looking at developments in a so-called "safe state." Let's not forget that 41% of South Carolinians voted for John Kerry, in a state that the Kerry campaign could not have made any concentrated effort to swing.
South Carolinians do not, in any case, blindly vote for Republicans. I say this based on the example of my father, who I consider in many ways to be the ideal swing voter. My dad, like many South Carolinians, works in textiles. We live in Greenville County, the most populous county in the state, and also one of the most REpublican. In 2001, my dad lost his job in the wake of free trade deals that allowed textiles to be bought cheaply from other countries, but he maintains a belief that free trade is good for the global economy. He rallied around the flag in the wake of September 11th. He supported racial profiling by airport security. He sent me emails explaining why he supported the invasion of Iraq. He voted Republican in 1996 and in 2000.
And last November, my dad voted for John Kerry.
Here's why: So far as I can tell, my dad votes based on two things, the economy and the man. If the economy is bad, he'll turn the bum out. If the economy is good, he'll look at the man and turn on his bullsh*t detector. I remember watching the Democratic primary debates with him, and his comments weren't things like "that guy's got good ideas." Instead, he was saying things like "that guy [Edwards] really has it together." When it came down to Bush and Kerry, my dad saw the Frontline documentary and noted, "Bush did what had to be done to reach his
objective and Kerry tried to do the right thing." I interpreted this to mean, "Bush is driven, but Kerry is principled." In the end, that turned out to make the difference.
Lots of South Carolinians, and lots of voters period, make their choices based on criteria like these. According to the article, Sanford is a poor campaigner, he doesn't work well with the legislator, and most importantly, he's done almost nothing in the last three years.
It's time for the national party to start paying some attention to SC. I'm not saying that we are as close to swinging in a Presidential election as Ohio or even Colorado, but think about this: The winner of this governor's race will be ripe for re-election in 2010. If he does well, it might be possible for Dems to pick up the 7 seats they need to take back the General Assembly and the 4 (!) seats they need to take back the State Senate. It's a pipe dream, but if it came true Democrats could easily gerrymander a third congressional seat out of the state.
This article states the obvious, that Moore needs money and name recognition to compete next year. I say no kidding. In my congressional district, the 4th, Bob Inglis was able to take back his old seat because a) he held the seat before Jim DeMint, who vacated it for his U.S. Senate run in 2004, and b) he raised over $500,000 from individuals. His opponent, a funeral home owner named Brandon Brown, raised...wait for it...$8,635.
My point is that South Carolinians like my Dad, and like the dozens of people who showed up at the Greenville public library to voice their concern about the Patriot Act when I was there for a visit in 2003, and tens of thousands of others are open and ready for a good candidate when he comes along. They just need to hear about it when it does...so keep your eye on this one, please.