Thursday was a fairly busy day on the campaign trail, so let's get after it:
THE BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: NRCC Targets Candidates on Pelosi
Swing State Report tells us that the NRCC is running ads and robocalls in over a dozen Democratic districts castigating Democrats who did not vote to launch an investigation on the Pelosi/CIA "issue". This move is curious on two ends. For one thing, if there was a public clamoring for an investigation into Pelosi, it’s been a very, VERY quiet clamoring. For another, once again, we see some curious targets on the list: Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (SD), Vic Snyder (AR), and, in what must be the strangest of them all, Steny Hoyer (MD). It is a bit tough to figure out exactly what the NRCC is trying to accomplish here. Maybe they are trying to match the NRSC for the most creative way to blow through their money.
NATIONAL: Right Wing Meme Destroyed, Part 293
Recently, the right wing noise machine has been all atwitter with a grand conspiracy theory that the Chrysler dealerships that were closing were the victims of a political hitjob. The dealerships being shuttered, they argued, were more likely to donate to Republican candidates than Democratic ones. It does not take Nate Silver very long to pop that particular balloon.
AK-GOV: Sarah Palin To Get Legitimate Democratic Challenger
This is good news for Democrats—one of the strongest political figures in their party up north—Ethan Berkowitz—is signaling that he is going to challenge Sarah Palin for Governor. Palin would start the race as a favorite (this IS Alaska, after all), but this means that she will not have an easy go of it if she seeks a second term in the governor’s mansion.
FL-GOV: GOP Dream Of A Cleared Primary Going Away?
Paula Dockery, a state senator in central Florida, has not slammed the door shut on a run for Governor. This has to be solemn news for the Florida GOP, who just last week appeared to clear the field for former Congressman and current attorney general Bill McCollum. There is still a chance, however, that Dockery will jump into the open-seat contest in FL-12 (where Adam Putnam is seeking a statewide office).
FL-SEN: Rubio Potentially Gets His First Campaign Issue
The deepening rift between the center and the right in the Sunshine State may get magnified by this move. Charlie Crist, in his duties as governor, signed a new budget that raised taxes by $2.2 billion. Most of that came from a new tobacco tax. Many Kossacks might applaud that kind of revenue enhancement, but something tells me that you don’t win a Republican primary in Florida by making tax decisions that would be applauded by people at the Daily Kos. More problematic for Crist—he just signed a "no-tax" pledge for Senate candidates earlier this month.
IA-GOV: Governor Culver To Get GOP Challenger Soon?
Iowa’s Democratic Governor, Chet Culver, has been looking at a raft of potential challengers, but no serious contender had elected to pull the trigger and enter the race. Until now, perhaps: Ballot Box, the election blog for Governing Magazine, is reporting that Christopher Rants, former speaker of the Iowa House, is prepping to get into the race.
MI-GOV: Cherry on Top of Two Leading GOP Candidates
EPIC-MRA is out with a new poll of the 2010 governors race in Michigan. In a Democratic primary, Debbie Stabenow would be unbeatable. She is unlikely to get into the race, though, meaning that Lt. Gov John Cherry is the betting favorite to be the Democratic nominee. He fares decently against the top two contenders for the GOP nomination, leading attorney general Mike Cox by one (36-35), and Congressman Peter Hoekstra by three (36-33). The only GOP candidate that leads Cherry is Sec. of State Terri Lynn Land (34-35), but she is currently third in the GOP field.
NJ-GOV: Just Released Poll On GOP Primary Gives Christie Double-Digit Lead
On the same day that the Daily Kos looked at the general election in New Jersey, Rasmussen explored the Republican Primary. Rasmussen has U.S. Attorney Chris Christie with an eleven-point edge (46-35) over Steve Lonegan.
NY-GOV: Is Sen. Gillibrand Tipping Someone’s Hand In Governors Race?
Ben Smith at Politico makes an interesting catch: last night, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand implied that there would not be a contested primary for the governor’s race in New York. Which begs the question: does this mean that Andrew Cuomo isn’t making a run for the governor’s mansion after all (with a raft of people lining up to replace him as attorney general, according to SSP)?? Or does it mean that Governor Paterson is reading the poll numbers on the wall, and is looking to parachute out?
NY-SEN: McCarthy Endorses Bloomberg: Tips Hand on US Senate Race?
This could be a case of overthinking, but it would seem that Long Island Rep. Carolyn McCarthy just gave her clearest indication that she is NOT going to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand for her U.S. Senate seat. McCarthy has endorsed Michael Bloomberg, the incumbent who is nominally Independent but will almost certainly have the backing of NYC Republicans, in his re-election bid. Hard to imagine that slighting the eventual Democratic candidate will be a very effective way of getting into the good graces of NYC Democrats, who will be crucial in any statewide primary. This is especially true, given that Gillibrand is likely to lock down the upstate NY vote. (h/t: DC's Political Report)
PA-SEN: Busy Day In Pennsylvania, Post-Sestak
The day after Joe Sestak upset the apple cart and announced his intention to challenge incumbent Democratic Sen. Arlen Specter, there is much to report here. One key item in the news is not so swell for Pat Toomey. Although polling released today showed him gaining on Specter, he apparently will have to wait on an endorsement from the NRSC. Sen. John Cornyn, the NRSC head, said today that any endorsement of Toomey would be premature. I am sure that Marco Rubio fans in Florida were just THRILLED to hear that from Cornyn. Also, take a quick read at Stu Rothenberg’s smackdown in Roll Call of Toomey ally Brian Wild, who wrote a piece for the newspaper about Toomey’s prospects. Finally, in news that will surprise no one, Greg Sargent reported today that all of the Democrats’ big guns are apparently standing by Specter.
PA-07: Rumors Abound In the Newest Open House Seat
With Joe Sestak apparently leaving the House seat he occupied for two terms, the speculation has already begun on who will replace him in the suburban Pennsylvania 7th district. Democratic speculation is coalescing around state Rep. Bryan Lentz, an Iraq War veteran who briefly was in the race in 2006 and stepped aside when Sestak got into the race. Republicans, meanwhile, are talking up Steven Welch, a biopharmaceutical executive. PA-07 is a district that seems to be trending Democratic. Republican for decades, it went for John Kerry by six points (53-47) and for Barack Obama by thirteen points (56-43).
VA-GOV: Great Analysis of Undecideds, And Potential Trouble For McAuliffe?
Two items emerging today on the Virginia governors race, where the primary is now just twelve days away. Tom Jensen at PPP gets linked to again, because he does a splendid analysis today looking at WHO the undecided voters are in the Democratic Primary. Most of the news, for what it is worth, looks good for Creigh Deeds. Terry McAuliffe, on the other hand, gets a spate of bad news from the Washington Post today, where an interview with Ralph Nader leads to an interesting accusation: Nader accuses McAuliffe (who was head of the DNC at the time) with offering Nader money to back out of nineteen key battleground states in the 2004 elections. McAuliffe’s people are chalking this up to Nader’s incessant craving of media attention. The allegations, however, we not specifically denied by the McAuliffe campaign.