I was looking at the numbers of casualties in Iraq and where they come from at
http://icasualties.org/oif/Stats.aspx and was wondering exactly which states have been paying the most by way of sacrifice. I imported the numbers into Quattropro along with census data in order to normalize for population. I included all 1712 US casulaties that have been identified by state as of June 22, 2005 along with US Census, July 2004 estimates. I also included election outcome and per capita income. My findings were subtly profound.
The range of total deaths was between two (Alaska) and 182 (California). Adjusting for population, there were a mean of 0.577 deaths per 100,000.
The state with the highest casualty rate was Vermont (1.77), the lowest Alaska (0.305). The five least populated states made up the extreme points, including all four of the highest casualty rate states (Vermont, North Dakota, Wyoming, and South Dakota) and the lowest casualty rate state (Alaska). This suggests chance plays a factor here among these states. Perhaps a statistician can provide the population required for confidence in the casualty rates when the overall rate is 0.577 per 100,000.
Among states with over two million people Mississippi, Arkansas and Louisiana have the highest rates, making for a southern set, followed Nebraska, Oregon and Iowa. On the other extreme, among the more highly populated states, with the lowest death rates were in Missouri, Utah, and Hawaii.
As you may have gathered, there is no blue/red state pattern. Kerry was victorious in Vermont and Oregon, two of the highest casualty rate states. Kerry was victorious in Hawaii, which had the second lowest casualty rate. Several states (mentioned above) went strongly to Bush and have among the highest casualty rates. On the other extreme, Bush's highest winning percentage (71.1%) came in Utah which has the third lowest casualty rate. Bush got 61.9% of the vote in Alaska (his sixth best) which has the lowest casualty rate. A regression analysis did not achieve statistical significance using percent Bush vote per state.
Using per capita income as the variable and including all states, the p value is 0.059 with a trend toward higher income meaning lower casualty rates. (As statistics going, this finding is not that compelling.) Excluding the five lowest population states, the p value is 0.002. Mississippi and Arkansas, the states with the two lowest per capita income had the highest casualty rates (again, excluding the five least populated states).
What's the moral here? It is not difficult to imagine that low income equals the army looking like a better opportunity. But the deeper lesson I encountered is that those who are fighting and dying in Iraq are us, not them. There was plenty of sacrifice to go around. The casualties are in conservative areas and liberal areas. It is all of us.