I have been doing a lot of thinking over the past couple days about how we will get health care with a public option through the Senate. Before October, we are going to need 60 votes to pass it and it appears to be a very uphill battle. It appears that every Republican but Olympia Snowe will not vote for healthcare reform with the public option. That leaves us with a solid 39 NO votes. It looks like Joe Lieberman, Mary Landrieu, and likely Kent Conrad and Ben Nelson will oppose the plan. That puts the NO votes at a certain 43, more than enough to kill the plan without reconciliation.
In October, reconcilation kicks in and Democrats will only need 50 votes plus Biden to pass the plan. This seems like a more reachable goal. Lets for all intents and purposes say that in the end Olympia Snowe, Blanche Lincoln, and Evan Bayh also decide to oppose the bill. That brings the NO votes up to 46. Assuming Democrats can get everyone seated(including Franken), they can lose up to four more Democratic votes and pass the plan with 50 votes with Vice President Joe Biden breaking the tie.
I dont think people realize how difficult this is going to be. We could not get this in the 1940's under Truman and were unable to get it under Clinton in 1993 with a Democratic majority almost as big. I feel that if we cannot get this done this time, we wont even be talking about universal healthcare again for another 15 or 20 years. I dont think we will ever see circumstances this favorable for many years.