Rumors have been flying that New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte will run against Paul Hodes for the Senate seat Judd Gregg has said he will be vacating. They've gone from Chuck Todd to Politico in what's pretty clearly an orchestrated trial balloon flotation. And, coming from the political director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, an Ayotte candidacy sounds like a serious threat:
Yesterday, NBC's Chuck Todd accurately reported on the move to draft New Hampshire Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (Republican appointed by Democratic Governor John Lynch after Republican Gov. Craig Benson). Ayotte would be a dream candidate for the GOP in NH, which has seen every GOP seat since 2006 in play from Republican to Democrat (former Sen. Sununu now Sen. Shaheen, former Rep. Bradley now Rep. Shea-Porter, Former Rep. Bass now Rep. Rep. Paul Hodes.)
Another poignant issue: AG Kelly Ayotte has young children and huge popularity in the state. She won't run if she doesn't think she can win -- and it increasingly looks like she may run.
Emphasis on sounds serious. Instead, it's another case of an allegedly nonpartisan New Hampshire pundit shilling for Republicans like her life depended on it.
As Steve Singiser mentioned last night, attorney general is not an elected position in New Hampshire. The "large base" Donahue claims for Ayotte has never been put to the test by, you know, actual voting. Attorney general is also, as far as I can determine, not a position that gets polled -- so any assertions of Ayotte's "huge popularity" are speculation or anecdote. And that's the level of evidence and analysis Donahue offers throughout. It's all anyone has to offer to back up claims that Ayotte will be popular with voters.
This isn't the first time. Donahue seems excited to use Ayotte to relive her own glory days of pumping Sarah Palin. She thought Palin was going to deliver New Hampshire to McCain. And when Donahue's own employer produced a poll that said otherwise? She responded:
[Jennifer Donahue] said that while most Clinton voters have moved to Obama, "there is a big chunk of women who support Sarah Palin, and, somehow, that's not being picked up in the polls.
"Many of them are independents," she said, "and you ignore them at your peril."
Kelly Ayotte is popular even though there's no polling, and Sarah Palin was popular among women even though that didn't show up in the polling there was. Mmmm-hmmm.
Given that prognostication record, this new piece by Donahue (who appears to be following Judd Gregg's lead here) should have us all quaking in our boots provide us with a good laugh. It is true that Ayotte is one of the more credible candidates New Hampshire Republicans could field -- after all, she's one of the few Republicans in the state who haven't been defeated at the ballot box the last two cycles. It's just that that's because she hasn't faced actual voters. Ever.
Sorry, Jennifer (and Judd, and all the other wannabe buzzmakers out there). You can't create a hot candidate out of evidence-free claims about her alleged popularity. Even if she does remind you of Sarah Palin.