Sorry last night’s Polling and Political Wrap-Up was a bit brief. You see, the legislative...er...educational session was a little demanding this year. So I thought I’d recharge my batteries and go for a hike on the Argentine Trail.
(And, honey, if you are reading—this is a joke. You know I was at Cody’s All-Star baseball practice with Kenzie. We even went for pizza after. I have the receipt!)
Let’s get to Wednesday’s political news that ISN’T about philandering. Believe it or not, there really was some....
TX-Gov: Van De Putte is Staying Put
For Democrats not too pleased about the buffet options of prominent "Friend of W." Tom Schieffer (who announced officially today that he is in) or one-time Independent candidate Kinky Friedman, the more appetizing prospect just took herself off of the menu. Leticia van de Putte, a well-liked state Senator, said that she would not run. Interestingly, though, she endorsed a candidate—it just happens to be one that has made no indication that he is running. She extolled the virtues of state Senator Kirk Watson, the onetime Austin Mayor who got handled by a double digit margin in 2002 in a race for Attorney General. Meanwhile, a new Texas Lyceum Poll is out. The format for the Senate race is decidedly unusual: it lists all candidates regardless of party. Undecided is the big winner (this poll, it should be noted, has an absurdly high percentage of undecideds, which makes me wonder if this was asked as an open-ended question, with no candidates named). 71% named no preference, while Houston Mayor and Democrat Bill White led the field with 9%. They also polled the primaries for governor. On the Democratic side, Kinky Friedman (10%) led both Schieffer (6%) and Van de Putte (3%). 80% were undecided (again, a total absurdity). The GOP survey was almost as bad, despite having two marquee names on the ballot: Rick Perry (33%) led Kay Bailey Hutchison (21%), with half of the GOP electorate undecided.
IL-18: Oh, The Hypocrisy! It Burns!
Markos had a great piece up earlier today about Eric Cantor’s sudden and apparent revelation that government spending could benefit his district. He’s not even the most odious Republican on the subject. Check out the young’un: Aaron Schock. Schock was on hand in Peoria on Monday to hand out a $410,000 federal grant to the East Peoria police department. It was a grant launched by Schock’s predecessor, current Sec. of Transportation Roy LaHood. It wound up being part of the part of the FY 2009 Omnibus Spending bill. Who voted AGAINST the FY 2009 Omnibus Spending bill when it reached final passage? I’ll give you three guesses. Now, in Schock’s defense, it might not be actual hypocrisy. He might have supported the grant, just not federal spending in ANYONE ELSE’S district. See?
NY-Sen: Tight Dem Primary, According to Q Poll. General Favors Dems
Quinnipiac polls the 2010 Democratic primary in New York, and finds that the incumbent, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is still pretty unknown, and is in a virtual tie with her presumptive challenger, Manhattan Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney. In the poll released today, Maloney holds a 27-23 lead over Gillibrand. Jonathan Tasini is well behind at 4%. Something for either candidate to exploit: half of the Democratic electorate is still undecided. Both candidates remain little-known, with over 60% of the electorate holding no opinion of either candidate. In the general election, against Long Island Congressman Peter King (who has similar name recognition), both Democrats have similar, and sizeable, leads. Gillibrand leads King by sixteen points (44-28), while Maloney also leads King, by the same sixteen point margin (42-26).
NY-Gov: Q Poll Shows Paterson Still Damaged, But Some Slight Improvement
It’s nothing to compel the popping of champagne corks, but incumbent Democratic governor David Paterson might be finally at the depth of the trough, according to the new Q Poll. Normally, being down eighteen points to your GOP challenger (Rudy Giuliani, who leads 52-34) is nothing to write home about, by that margin was twenty-two points last month. Paterson’s approval sits at 28%: bleak, to be sure, but the best he has polled with Quinnipiac since February. Though every recent report has him on the sidelines, Andrew Cuomo still would have an easy lead in a prospective Democratic primary (57-20), and a fairly solid lead over Rudy Giuliani (51-39).
FL-Sen: Crist Has A Big, But Not Insurmountable, Lead Over Dems
Rasmussen polls the general election in Florida’s Senate race (if they took GOP primary polling data, they are still holding it close to the vest). They find Charlie Crist, as one would expect, leading both prospective Democratic candidates. What they find, however, is that he is only at or below 50% against either Corinne Brown (50-29) or Kendrick Meek (46-28). This is significantly closer than most pollsters have had this contest. Also, it is worth noting that it is doubtful that this is a Dem-skewed survey: Barack Obama’s favorables in this poll were 46/50, which strike me as a little bit low for Florida, if anything.
NJ-Gov: New GOP Poll Shows Christie With Double Digit Lead
This is a survey by a Republican pollster (Strategic Vision), so let that figure into your calculations. They show the race with little change, as Republican nominee Chris Christie leads Governor Jon Corzine by twelve points (51-39). Unlike other recent polls, unfortunately, Chris Christie’s name recognition was not tested. Corzine had a huge lead, however, in campaign finance reports for the past month. Corzine raised over a million dollars, while Christie lagged with around thirteen grand. And, in a fun note, Barack Obama appears pretty confident that Jon Corzine will pull this one out.
AR-Sen: Can the GOP Find One Undamaged Candidate To Run For Senate?
The Arkansas GOP just can’t win for losing, can they? First, there was state Senator Kim Hendren, who felt the need to dismissively refer to New York Senator Chuck Schumer as "that Jew." Then there was teabagger Tom Cox, who had a little issue of INS raids on his business and whatnot. Now, another candidate has put himself in a bit of a pickle: Curtis Coleman told a group of Benton County GOPers that a trip to Southeast Arkansas would require "a visa and shots." Where is the highest concentration of African-Americans in Arkansas? That would be Southern Arkansas.
SC-Gov: Sanford Has New Poll Numbers! Guess Where They’ll Land!
My eternal gratitude to Politico and Insider Advantage for giving me a tiny little piece of the Sanford story today...whee! As of yesterday (when the poll was conducted), Sanford had 52% job approval, with 44% disapproving. Gee, you think it will go up or down after the revelations of today?
PA-Sen/PA-Gov: Gerlach Out of Senate—Into Governors Race?
As Markos alluded to today in the mid-day open thread, SE PA Congressman Jim Gerlach has now made it clear that he is not running for the U.S. Senate, which just about locks down that race for Patrick Toomey. What Gerlach did NOT close the door on, however, was running for Governor. He might want to go statewide—it is a qualified risk, but running for re-election is a risk now, as well, with a solid Democratic candidate (Doug Pike) already in the 2010 field.