The conventional wisdom (which, as the inimitable Molly Ivins was fond to point out, is often wrong) says that South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford's political career can now be described in the past tense.
There is some reason to believe that this is not necessarily true.
An obvious political "break" for Sanford was the nature of this week's news cycle. Within 28 hours of Sanford's extraordinary news conference explaining the nature of his disappearance and the details of his bizarre case of infidelity, Michael Jackson passed away.
Sanford, on the verge of being the sole topic of conversation for days on end in the midst of a slow early-summer news cycle, instead was relegated to a spot far down the depth chart, along with every other news story NOT about the Jackson death. Indeed, yesterday afternoon, five of the top six stories on the CNN.com list of most viewed stories were about Jackson. Sanford was not in the top ten.
There are other reasons to believe, as well, that there could be a political resurrection for Sanford if he wants one.
For one thing, he benefits from his political predecessors. The sheer volume of tales of politicians in sexual imbroglios (including, as recently as a few weeks ago, Nevada Senator John Ensign) has given the spectre of politicians breaking their marriage vows in spectacular fashion a sort of "been there/done that" insignificance.
That could well explain this survey conducted late in the week by Rasmussen. In that survey, 73% of those polled in South Carolina found Sanford to be as ethical or more ethical than his political peers. Read that statement again. Nearly three-quarters of those polled saw nothing uniquely bad about Sanford. In an even more stunning stat, an equal number (18%) found Sanford MORE ethical than his political peers than those that found him LESS ethical than them.
This maxim seems true of all politicians, but more so for conservative Republicans, and even MORE SO for evangelical Christian conservative Republicans. Evangelical right-winger Helen Chenoweth might have had the prototypical response for a conservative Republican caught in the middle of a sexual tryst:
Rep. Helen Chenoweth (R-Idaho), who was one of the first to call for Clinton's resignation, told the Spokane Spokesman-Review that God had pardoned her sins for her six-year extra-marital affair.
There has, at least in recent history, been something of a double standard on the topic of political infidelity. Contrast Eliot Spitzer's getting run out of the New York statehouse on a rail with David Vitter, who faced, at worst, only scattered calls for resignation. Jim McGreevey was also run from his job in...shall we say...unique circumstances, while Larry Craig, whose "coming out" party included a criminal act, retired on his own terms, his only formal rebuke being an ethics committee admonishment that the committee had (curiously) not seen fit to burden Vitter with.
So Sanford benefits not only from escaping the worst of the news cycle, but also from the fact that conservative Republican philanderers tend to escape with a bit less permanent damage than other politicos.
Sanford also has the benefit of time. His next political move, according to just about everyone, was going to be national. Earlier this year, the right-wing American Conservative seemed on the precipice of an endorsement when they wrote that "Mark Sanford will be the GOP’s most dangerous man in 2012."
The same article offered a small vignette that shows that Sanford has a large reservoir of self-confidence to go with his political ambition:
Though he had endorsed John McCain in 2000, Sanford stayed out of the Republican contest in 2008. Two days before the primary, Sen. Lindsey Graham was dispatched to Sanford’s office with a plea and an offer. Graham told Sanford that an endorsement from the popular governor could put McCain over the top in the key primary state. In return, he promised a spot on McCain’s veep shortlist. Sanford responded cooly, "I don’t need your help getting on the shortlist" and declined.
If the man has the hunger to be a presidential candidate, and apparently feels like he belongs in that pantheon of candidates, he has the luxury of time. If timing is everything, he made this small act of political lunacy early enough that ample time will elapse before he would have to re-enter the political stage.
So...from a dispassionate political perspective, it has to be said that it is at least POSSIBLE for Sanford to make the comeback. Heck, one of the presumptive favorites for 2012 is Newt Gingrich, who spectacularly imploded his political career about a decade ago. Sanford will have less time, to be sure, but Gingrich's political resurrection proves that it can be done.
Because it can happen doesn't mean it SHOULD happen, however.
If Mark Sanford is sincere in resurrecting his marriage, he would be ill served by trying to resurrect his political career.
Jenny Sanford is not an ordinary political spouse. Unlike a lot of spouses thrust into the spotlight as a result of the political ambitions of their beloved, South Carolina's first lady has been instrumental in the political ascendancy of her husband. A lot of wives have been active in the campaigns of their husbands, but few have actually MANAGED THE CAMPAIGNS of their spouses, as Mrs. Sanford has done. According to her official biography, her husband's 2006 campaign against Democrat Tommy Moore was the first in his career that she was not the exclusive manager of the campaign. There are no shortage of people who think that her political acumen exceeds that of her husband.
And, because of that, any political comeback by the Governor would put Jenny Sanford in an incredibly untenable conflict. Her desire to repair the marriage and the family will be thurst up against her political instincts, which have been instrumental in sculpting Mark Sanford's 15-year political career. She would be compelled to choose between trying to preserve a family that she gave up her banking career to begin, or aiding in an effort to get a political career back on track after the mother of all speed bumps. It would be a decision that would tear at the two primary themes of the last two decades of this woman's life.
Of course, anyone reading the news this weekend might presume that she no longer cares about the status of her husband's political career. That said, it is worth noting that her comment comes less than 48 hours before she was humiliated in front of the national (heck, global) media. Time might function to heal those wounds. If he pushed the political issue two years from now, when GOP politicos were getting set for 2012, she may well sing a different tune.
Politicians often talk about wanting to repair their families in the wake of their personal failings. Some are probably even sincere about that. If Mark Sanford is sincere in his desire to mend the badly frayed strands of his marriage and his family, he should walk away from politics sooner than later.
Of course, the revelations of this past weekend may render the entire argument moot. If it becomes more evident that Sanford's personal relationship had policy implications, then this elevates beyond a mere sex scandal.
Some political analysts, including a number of Republicans, already chalked Sanford off, saying the sex scandal alone, especially because of its almost absurd details, will be enough to derail his career. It is a worthy question--Has Sanford skated over the edge? It is certainly debatable. What is not debatable, though, is that even if the pundits and the prognosticators are wrong and he can make a comeback, he would serve his family far more admirably if he retreated to the sidelines.