If GOP optimism about their Congressional electoral fortunes is so gosh-darned strong, why does this keep happening?
U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach has alerted top officials at the National Republican Congressional Committee that he'll run for governor next year in lieu of a reelection effort in Congress.
The decision is expected in an announcement Tuesday. It sets up a GOP primary battle for governor of Pennsylvania between the four-term suburban Philadelphia lawmaker and Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett and leaves the Republican Party facing a battle to retain a congressional seat that Gerlach has held since it was drawn at the turn of the decade.
Gerlach represents the Pennsylvania 6th district, centered in suburban Philadelphia. It is a district that he has been all-out in recent cycles to hang onto, winning by low single digits against well-funded challenger Lois Murphy, and modestly-funded challenger Bob Roggio.
In 2010, he was confronted with another well-funded Democratic challenger in former Inquirer editorial board member Doug Pike.
That might explain his decision to seek new pastures, although as the Morning Call points out, it is an open question whether or not he will even be able to escape the primary:
[Gerlach] will be considered an underdog in the race to replace Gov. Ed Rendell. Corbett cemented his status as a heavyweight statewide candidate last fall, when he was the only Republican to win a statewide contest, collecting more than three million votes in defeating John Morganelli.
Polls show Corbett and possible Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dan Onorato (Allegheny County Executive) locked in a close race, with Corbett staked to a small lead within the margin of error.
The fallback plan for the GOP in the 6th district is probably going to be state legislator Curt Schroder, who had already formed an exploratory committee in the event of Gerlach's departure.
Gerlach becomes the second Republican in a vulnerable district to parachute out of the House in as many days, following Mark Kirk (IL-10), who we are at least pretty sure is still planning to run for the Senate in the Land of Lincoln.