The Money Chase: An Early Analysis

I always have a bit of trepidation about reporting on campaign fundraising. Inevitably, there will be no shortage of angry commentary about how it shouldn't matter how well funded a candidate is. This is, the detractors say, everything that is WRONG with American politics.

I don't necessarily disagree. But in the system we have, a campaign that can raise funds, especially early, is going to catch positive attention from both political party committees and other donors. A campaign that underperforms early invites uncomfortable scrutiny. What is...is.

With that in mind, I have spent some time over at the FEC website, poring over the reports in key races. Today, we will look at the "big races", some pleasant surprises, and some disappointments.

KEY RACES: THE TOSSUPS OF 2010
Let's start with the seven races that the Cook Political Report have labelled as toss-ups. One of the seven (NY-23) does not have anything to report, since the candidates there are still shaking out. Let's look at the other six.

LA-02
Incumbent Republican: Joseph Cao--$370K Raised, $339K On Hand
Leading Challenger: None As Of Yet

There are several names being bandied about for Democratic contenders in the New Orleans based 2nd district. No one of note, as of yet, has filed their FEC reports. Cao is raising money like he is seriously planning on defending his seat, which probably makes Democrats happy, because even a massive warchest is unlikely to save Cao in the most inhospitable district for an incumbent in America.

PA-06
Leading Republican: Curt Schroder--$20K Raised, $15K On Hand
Leading Democrat: Doug Pike--$663K Raised, $629K On Hand

Here is a race where the early money chase clearly favors the Democrats. It is worth noting that about a half-million dollars of Pike's haul was a donation to his own campaign (not a loan, mind you...a donation). Despite that, he still raised over $150,000 independent of his own efforts. In fairness to Republican state legislator Curt Schroder, his was only an exploratory committee put in the place in the event (which has now come to pass) that GOP incumbent Jim Gerlach decided to leave the House to pursue higher office.

AL-02
Democratic Incumbent: Bobby Bright--$219K Raised, $357K On Hand
Leading Challenger: Martha Roby--$125K Raised, $125K On Hand
Bright has a district that is almost as hostile to him as the Louisiana 2nd is to Joseph Cao. He has raised ample funds in his first two quarters. Rookie candidate Martha Roby had an adequate opening quarter, but nothing to send the NRCC into spasms of joy. This will likely be one of the closest races in the country, given Bright's personal popularity matching up against a district that naturally prefers Republicans

ID-01
Democratic Incumbent: Walt Minnick--$332K Raised, $481K On Hand
Leading Challenger: Vaughn Ward--$75K Raised, $105K On Hand
Like the Alabama 2nd, this is a district where money will matter, but not as much, because Minnick is in a district so inhospitable to Democrats. The field is still very much working itself out on the Republican side, but Vaughn Ward has a small jump on the roster of other Republicans eyeing the race.

MD-01
Democratic Incumbent: Frank Kratovil--$300K Raised, $503K On Hand
Leading Challenger: Andy Harris--$125K Raised, $210K On Hand
Here is a race where the Republican might be underperforming a tad. Kratovil is raising money like a vulnerable incumbent--a sound strategy, since that is exactly what he is. The eastern-shore based 1st district is not southeastern Alabama or the Idaho panhandle, but this is still a district in which John McCain beat Barack Obama. $125K from a first-timer like Martha Roby is slightly underwhelming, but still reasonable. $125K from the 2008 nominee is another matter entirely. I feel a bit better about Kratovil's prospects after reading these reports.

NM-02
Democratic Incumbent: Harry Teague--$330K Raised, $574 On Hand
Leading Challenger: Steve Pearce--Did Not File
We know Pearce will have ample resources, fresh off a statewide Senate campaign where he raised plenty of money, and owing to his status as a multi-term incumbent in the district. Teague is doing exactly what he is supposed to do, however, and starts the campaign with a half-million dollar cushion on the man who preceded him in this office.

THE (MOSTLY) PLEASANT SURPRISES OF THE QUARTER
Scanning the excellent summary written up by James L. over at the Swing State Project (if there is a race you care about, that's the place to go), there are certainly some candidates who flew under the radar and then dropped a massive second quarter report on the table. Let's look at around a half-dozen of those, in no particular order.

1. Dr. Ami Bera (Democrat/CA-03)--$288K Raised, $287K On Hand
Dan Lungren limped into the 2010 cycle, having been held under 50% by second-time candidate Bill Durston in this mostly rural and suburban district in the Sacramento Valley. Physician Ami Bera, who used to be the chief medical officer for Sacramento County, had a monster quarter, with only a couple of thousand dollars self-funded. Very impressive, and something that should certainly get Lungren's attention (Bera beat Lungren, who raised a respectable $233K for the quarter).

2. Steve Pougnet (Democrat/CA-45)--$201K Raised, $203K On Hand
Pougnet is the Mayor of Palm Springs, and is challenging longtime incumbent Mary Bono-Mack. Like Bera, Pougnet outraised his Republican incumbent (Bono-Mack came in at around $167K for the quarter). Bono-Mack is not only dealing with a Democratic challenger that seems to be on the ball, but she is facing some trouble at home. The teabaggers, it seems, are displeased. A fractured base, plus a strong challenger, makes this a race to watch next year in a district narrowly carried by the President.

3. Cory Gardner (Republican/CO-04)--$206K Raised, $182K On Hand
State legislator Cory Gardner is tasked with taking on freshman Democrat Betsy Markey in this once-staunchly Republican district (which split almost evenly in 2008). Gardner is almost certain to face a competitive GOP primary, but he put together a strong opening quarter for his campaign. Markey knows she is a target, and has been raising accordingly, taking in $240K for the quarter and sitting on over $500K on hand.

4. John Carney (Democrat/DE-AL)--$262K Raised, $235K On Hand
Carney is potentially a challenger to longtime Republican incumbent Mike Castle. Carney more than doubled Castle's modest ($125K) take, leading many to now speculate that Castle is on the verge of announcing his retirement. If Castle does elect to leave the House, Carney will have amenable territory (Delaware went 62% for Barack Obama), and a huge cash advantage.

5. Allan West (Republican/FL-22)--$218K Raised, $136K On Hand
West challenged Democratic incumbent Ron Klein in 2008, and held the Democrat to 55% of the vote despite being badly outspent. This time around, his fundraising is considerably better, but his burn rate is absurdly high for this early in the cycle. It's not quite BMW Direct kind of high (that would be the company that gave Deborah Honeycutt and William Russell huge fundraising numbers, but also almost no cash on hand), but he spent more than half of what he took in.

6. Maureen Reed (Democrat/MN-06)--$231K Raised, $219K On Hand
This was a big surprise, and portends a very expensive Democratic primary between Democratic newcomer Reed, 2008 nominee Elwyn Tinklenberg (whose fundraising was far less, as he got in late in the cycle) and Tarryl Clark (who did not get in until this week). Reed, a former statewide nominee for the Independence Party, raised all of this independent of self-funding, and spent very little of it, both signs of strength.

7. Jack McDonald (Democrat/TX-10)--$322K Raised, $557K On Hand
GOP nominee Michael McCaul is getting used to well-funded opponents (having fought off Larry Joe Doherty in 2008), and as the son-in-law of the founder of Clear Channel, he will never hurt for money. That said, Democratic businessman Jack McDonald put together his second monster quarter in a row, and is going to draw a lot of attention to this nominally Republican district in Central Texas.

There is also a self-funder who compiled an impressive quarter, although most of it was out of his own checkbook: Jon Del Arroz in CA-11, who dropped in over $300K of his own money, and has $277K on hand to battle incumbent Jerry McNerney (who raised $289K in his own right)

THE INCOMPLETE GRADES FOR THE QUARTER
It is too early to say that someone is certainly underperforming, because there are a number of variables here. Some folks got into the race late, others have not started to raise money in earnest yet. That said, there are a handful of candidates (Democratic and Republican alike) whose fundraising numbers were probably a bit less than people would have anticipated.

One of those is for an obvious reason. On first blush, the $86K quarter for Ethan Hastert in IL-14 was a bit underwhelming. Until you realize that he only formed the committee in the final week of the time period, and only raised money for a single day. In that perspective, it looks a lot better. The same may be true for Democrat Josh Segall in AL-03, who decided on a rematch with GOP incumbent Mike Rogers rather late in the quarter, which might explain the $200K discrepancy between the two candidates for the quarter.

Some candidates with underwhelming quarters might not have felt the urgency to put up huge numbers, because their incumbents usually fail to do so in the off-year. This might have been the situation for Democrat Charlie Justice in FL-10, who raised just $86K but still almost doubled up longtime incumbent Bill Young (whose $49K haul have some people talking retirement--remember, though, that he did the same thing in 2007). It could also explain the fairly modest quarter for much-hyped Republican candidate Frank Guinta in NH-01, who needed a $20K loan to make it into six figures. The Democratic incumbent there, Carol Shea-Porter, is notorious for marginal fundraising, and Guinta only trailed her by around ten grand (including Guinta's loan).

Other candidates are giving their incumbents a potentially dangerous head start. One that comes to mind immediately is Democrat Bill Hedrick in CA-44, who raised $65K for the quarter. On its own, that would be a little lower than expected for someone who came within four points of victory in 2008, but it becomes even more suspect when paired with GOP incumbent Ken Calvert's massive haul ($407K) for the quarter. Likewise, self-funded Paul Welday could not even loan himself ($105K--all but $4K out of pocket) into contention in MI-09 against freshman Democrat Gary Peters ($465K for the quarter).

Expect to see a lot of action in the coming quarter, as the summer of the off-year is when candidates typically firm up their plans for the cycle. One thing to consider, a lot of incumbents in both parties have been really getting after it with their fundraising. Candidate may not have the luxury of dawdling over their decision of whether or not to run. If they do so, they may risk giving their incumbent opponents too strong of a head start, and as a result, they may doom their candidacies before they even begin.