With the usual caution about national polls (though I'd argue that they count for more than Kos and many others suggest), the new ABC/WashPost numbers surely deserve a diary entry at least.
Note that ABC/WashPost polls are notably Bush-friendly; in the Pollkatz analysis they rank second only to Fox.
Poll taken 10/26-29, of registered voters; the primary rankings are by Democrats and Dem-leaning indies. Sample size and MoE not listed.
(Previous numbers are 10/9-13 and 9/10-13)
Dean .......... 17 (16 - 15)
Gephardt .... 14 (14 - 14)
Clark .......... 14 (13 - 06)
Lieberman ... 13 (10 - 21)
Kerry ............ 8 (11 - 14)
Sharpton ....... 7 (04 - 05)
Edwards ....... 5 (03 - 03)
Braun ............ 3 (06 - 04)
Kucinich ....... 2 (02 - 02)
None: ............ 5 (09 - 03) volunteered answer
Wouldn't vote: 1 (01 - 02) "
Compared to the last national poll (Quinnipiac), Clark and Dean are flipped in this one, with Dean leading by a shade. (Though I doubt that the 2-point rise for Dean since September means much.)
Kerry has faded substantially since September. Liebereman dropped sharply from September, but seems to have hit his floor support and even recovered a bit. So the best overall way to put it is that nationally it is a 4-way race between Clark, Dean, Gep, and Lieberman.
I think it's pretty clear that Joe Lieberman's terrible standing in Kossaqstan, and the netroots in general, does not reflect his real standing among Dems nationally - after all, the guy has stabilized in the top tier. There's still the problem that he's getting no traction in any early primary state, suggesting that the less people see and hear him the more they like him.
Some polls showed an outsized entry bounce for Clark, followed by a sag; this one doesn't. Perhaps it missed the top of the bounce. In any case, it seems fair to say that Clark has stabilized.
In this poll, Bush has recovered somewhat against "generic Dem," 48/47, compared to 44/49 in the early October poll. His approval ratings are 56/42, up from 53/42 last time.
Bush versus:
Gep .... 51/42
Kerry .. 52/43
Clark .. 52/40
Dean ... 53/39
Lieb ... 56/38
Given how Bush-friendly the ABC/WashPost poll tends to be, the value of these numbers is mainly the relative ranking. Gep and Kerry run best against Bush here, each trailing by a 9-point gap; Clark has a 12-point gap, and Dean a 14-point gap. Lieberman trails with an 18-point gap.
On the face of it, this gives Gep the best electability bragging rights (given that Kerry is fading in the primaries) - though the electability question is mainly about who would run best against Bush.
Finally, a poll of my own: how relevant are national numbers, compared to early-state numbers?
-- Rick Robinson