In perhaps the most abrupt move of any non-mentially-ill and nationally-recognized politician in my lifetime, Sarah Palin announced her resignation of the Alaska governorship on Friday.
Here is my theory as to what transpired over the past week to cause her to resign.
(Also, note the poll: "Will Sarah Palin be the 2012 GOP nominee?")
Scene 1: The Article
Todd Purdum’s Vanity Fair article, “It Came from Wasilla,” goes online on Tuesday.
Sarah Palin hears about the article, and although it generates a lot of buzz very quickly in the world of political punditry, she does not read it. But, she is again personally ticked-off, slightly mystified, and hurt. She spends a good part of the day unable to concentrate, wondering what exactly is in the article.
Scene 2: The Other Article
That night, Politico publishes an article entitled, “Sarah Palin story sparks Republican family feud,” full of on-the-record Republicans trading verbal blows and accusations about the Vanity Fair article, the 2008 campaign, and Sarah Palin’s political skills or lack thereof. Sarah Palin reads the Politico article, and then decides to read (or skim) the Vanity Fair article. She becomes livid and confused. And just as she begins to think things through, she is alerted to another unflattering story, a CBS News piece containing leaked 2008 campaign emails written by her, on her husband’s membership in a secessionist group, the Alaskan Independence Party. At this point Sarah Palin is at her wit’s-end, depressed and livid...
Scene 3: The Runner's World flap, and the at-wit’s-end decision
Earlier in the week, the article Sarah Palin is actually looking forward to had come out. It's a Runner’s World story entitled, “I'm a Runner: Sarah Palin.” Here, finally, is a moment in which she can bask. But by week's-end, the flap over a photograph in the article, showing semi-disrespect for the American flag (due, no doubt, to a failure to surround herself with competent “handlers”), is the final straw. Palin decides enough is enough.
Frustrated, angry, and now more than a little hurt, she takes a page from the John McCain playbook and makes a snap decision without input beyond her family, and without sleeping on it (maybe literally): I WILL RESIGN THE GOVERNORSHIP, AND ALL OF THESE STUPID PROBLEMS AND NASTY CRITICISMS WILL GO AWAY.
On Friday, Sarah Palin orders a hasty news conference (so hasty that the national media are unable to cover it live). Without substantial thought, with no written speech and lacking adequate notes, she announces (after several minutes of Sanford-like rambling) her intention to resign. She is upset, nervous, and angry.
She leaves the podium feeling as though a giant weight has been lifted from her shoulders, and in many ways it has. At the end of the month, she will again be a private citizen, she’ll have the “pick of the litter” of the hundreds of speaking invitations for high-paying gigs which are arriving even at this moment, and she will have planted in her place a new Republican governor who has a better chance of winning the 2010 Alaska governorship than herself, and by so-doing, probably retaining the office for the GOP.
The immediate reaction from most political observers is that yesterday Sarah Palin ruined her chances of attaining the Republican nomination for president in 2012. But I’m not so sure.
...
As I stated above, the Three Scenes are purely conjecture on my part. But I believe that what transpired, if not exactly as described, is close.
Sarah Palin, as a national political celebrity, and surrounded by adoring fans, is utterly blind to the fact that she is not respected by a huge number of Americans. The bubble in which she lives and in which she will continue to travel, ensures that her blindness will prevail until a catastrophic electoral loss, either in a future GOP primary, or—if my prediction is correct—on Election Day, 2012. She may not know it today, but she cannot not run for president. In the weeks and months to come, engaging as she will on a daily basis with fawning fans and adoring throngs, Sarah Palin will come to believe (if she hasn't already) that of the GOP contenders, she is best-suited to lead her party as the 2012 presidential nominee. And, as much as it scares me to think it, she may be right.
As pointed out by several pundits, her decision accomplishes the following...
A) It frees Palin from the the possibility of losing the upcoming gubernatorial election in Alaska and entering the presidential race as a loser (an impossible situation).
B) It frees Palin from the part of her existence which was no fun (attempting to govern), and allows her to surround herself with adoring fans and media attention in the Lower 48, which, as a narcissist, is a paradise more pleasurable than any other part of her life outside of her family.
C) It frees Palin up to raise money for the GOP (one of her favorite pastimes), making her feel, justifiably, significant in a major way.
D) It frees Palin up to raise money for her 2012 presidential campaign, and to generate a great deal more personal income.
...
Was the move stupid? Although not long-thought out, and foolishly executed on one of the most ignored pre-holiday news days of the year, the decision was probably not stupid. Her resignation provides her with three advantages:
- She will enter the 2012 presidential race without having lost an election;
- Even with her pre-holiday bad timing, she becomes the major news story of the week, at least until the Michel Jackson funeral on Tuesday. On saturday her photo appeared on the font pages of countless newspapers, and regular-Joe knowledge of her persona is reaching the level of the truly famous.
- She can make a ton of money (personal income) and raise a ton of money (GOP fund-raising) now that she’s about to be free of a job that tied her down in Alaska.
In the end (or at least as of this moment), Sarah Palin remains a qualified GOP contender for the Presidency, a job for which she is unqualified. She either recognizes now, or will soon, that she is in the Republican catbird seat. Fortunately or unfortunately, as stupidity and scandal seem to take another assumed GOP condender out of the running every week, Palin becomes the most attractive, famous and—to the GOP base—the most loved of the potential remaining Republican nominees.
Sarah Palin has a very real shot at securing the Republican nomination for president in 2012. Why? Because to the Republicans who tend to vote in primaries, Sarah Palin is young, healthy, and spunky. And, she's more “Christian” than Mitt Romney, more attractive and nimble than Mike Huckabee, more moral than either Newt Gingrich (two divorces, three marriages) or Rudy Giuliani (two divorces, three marriages), far less goofy and far more Caucasian than Bobby Jindal, and tougher and more conservative than Charlie Crist. In debates she will hold her own, not through brilliant insight or rhetoric, but through use of the simple words and red meat catch phrases, we hear over and over again, and which have come to brand the GOP.
Sarah Palin's week had three scenes. But most dramatic plays have three acts. As the curtain closes on Act I, the tea leaves may indeed lead to a Palinn-lead GOP ticket. Stay tuned for Acts II and III, which if come to pass as I envision them, include an amazing (and perhaps horrifing) campaign, and a brilliant flame-out of Goldwater proportions on Election Day, 2012.
Will it be a tragidy or a comedy?