I posted a diary awhile ago detailing my firm belief that, if left to itself the health insurance industry would simply, at some point in the future, eat itself.
I was then reading the excellent Ten Healthcare Talking Points for Democrats, when I had a bolt between the eyes. My mechanism for proof was sitting right there: 14,000 Americans lose their insurance each day.
I started an excel table right then and started working up the numbers, based on five assumptions. My conclusion was startling: 1/2 of the population will be without insurance by 2039.
The population of the United States is 305 Million and change.
By 2039 (30 years from now) the population will equal 400,000,000.
Americans will continue to lose health insurance at 14,000 people per day.
46 Million Americans are currently uninsured.
The over-65 population is currently 39 million and will equal 20% of Americans in 2030.
If current rates of population growth and aging are maintained, by 2039, almost half of the population will be uninsured, an additional 22% will be on Medicare, and the rest of us, the insured, will equal 27% of the population.
I'd love to do an extrapolation of the rates that those 27% would pay but I really can't see the system surviving that long. It is simply ridiculous that this can be allowed to continue.
Also, please note I increased the uninsured by a fixed number each year: 5110000 (which is 14,000 x 365). I would assume that that's probably more like a percentage of the population, which would bring us to the halfway point much sooner.
Plus I have not even factored in the lever of increasing insurance premiums causing employers to stop offering insurance, and people to stop buying it.
I think this simple illustration says ENOUGH. And I mean, ENOUGH is the fuck ENOUGH.
Year | Population | Uninsured | Over 65 | % Uninsured | % on Medicare | Everyone Else |
2009 | 305,529,237 | 46,000,000 | 39,472,928 | 15.06% | 12.92% | 72.02% |
2010 | 308,786,849 | 51,110,000 | 41,154,589 | 16.55% | 13.33% | 70.12% |
2011 | 312,044,461 | 56,220,000 | 42,836,251 | 18.02% | 13.73% | 68.26% |
2012 | 315,302,073 | 61,330,000 | 44,517,912 | 19.45% | 14.12% | 66.43% |
2013 | 318,559,685 | 66,440,000 | 46,199,574 | 20.86% | 14.50% | 64.64% |
2014 | 321,817,297 | 71,550,000 | 47,881,235 | 22.23% | 14.88% | 62.89% |
2015 | 325,074,909 | 76,660,000 | 49,562,896 | 23.58% | 15.25% | 61.17% |
2016 | 328,332,521 | 81,770,000 | 51,244,558 | 24.90% | 15.61% | 59.49% |
2017 | 331,590,133 | 86,880,000 | 52,926,219 | 26.20% | 15.96% | 57.84% |
2018 | 334,847,745 | 91,990,000 | 54,607,881 | 27.47% | 16.31% | 56.22% |
2019 | 338,105,357 | 97,100,000 | 56,289,542 | 28.72% | 16.65% | 54.63% |
2020 | 341,362,969 | 102,210,000 | 57,971,203 | 29.94% | 16.98% | 53.08% |
2021 | 344,620,581 | 107,320,000 | 59,652,865 | 31.14% | 17.31% | 51.55% |
2022 | 347,878,193 | 112,430,000 | 61,334,526 | 32.32% | 17.63% | 50.05% |
2023 | 351,135,805 | 117,540,000 | 63,016,188 | 33.47% | 17.95% | 48.58% |
2024 | 354,393,417 | 122,650,000 | 64,697,849 | 34.61% | 18.26% | 47.14% |
2025 | 357,651,029 | 127,760,000 | 66,379,510 | 35.72% | 18.56% | 45.72% |
2026 | 360,908,641 | 132,870,000 | 68,061,172 | 36.82% | 18.86% | 44.33% |
2027 | 364,166,253 | 137,980,000 | 69,742,833 | 37.89% | 19.15% | 42.96% |
2028 | 367,423,865 | 143,090,000 | 71,424,495 | 38.94% | 19.44% | 41.62% |
2029 | 370,681,477 | 148,200,000 | 73,106,156 | 39.98% | 19.72% | 40.30% |
2030 | 373,939,089 | 153,310,000 | 74,787,818 | 41.00% | 20.00% | 39.00% |
2031 | 377,196,701 | 158,420,000 | 76,469,479 | 42.00% | 20.27% | 37.73% |
2032 | 380,454,313 | 163,530,000 | 78,151,141 | 42.98% | 20.54% | 36.48% |
2033 | 383,711,925 | 168,640,000 | 79,832,802 | 43.95% | 20.81% | 35.24% |
2034 | 386,969,537 | 173,750,000 | 81,514,463 | 44.90% | 21.06% | 34.03% |
2035 | 390,227,149 | 178,860,000 | 83,196,125 | 45.83% | 21.32% | 32.85% |
2036 | 393,484,761 | 183,970,000 | 84,877,786 | 46.75% | 21.57% | 31.68% |
2037 | 396,742,373 | 189,080,000 | 86,559,448 | 47.66% | 21.82% | 30.52% |
2038 | 399,999,985 | 194,190,000 | 88,241,109 | 48.55% | 22.06% | 29.39% |
2039 | 400,000,000 | 199,300,000 | 89,922,770 | 49.83% | 22.48% | 27.69% |