Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 8/3-5. Likely voters. MoE 4% (6/15-17 results)
Deeds (D) 43 (44)
McDonnell (R) 51 (45)
People sitting on the sidelines as "undecided" back in mid-June, post-primary, are now falling behind McDonnell. And the gains come almost entirely from independents -- they leaned McDonnell 47-44 back in June, but now break heavily for the Republican 55-40. McDonnell has even managed to peal away a few points of Democratic support, growing from 13 percent to 17 percent. Deeds, for his part, picks up a scant six percent of Republican support.
The approval/disapproval numbers are telling:
Creigh Deeds (D)
Approve 46 (47)
Disapprove 40 (35)
Don't know 14 (18)
Bob McDonnell (R)
Approve 57 (55)
Disapprove 38 (36)
Don't know 5 (9)
Deeds is moving backwards while McDonell is holding steady -- not a trend that points to victory. And unlike the primary, Deeds won't be able to win by laying low and watching his opponents nuke each other. He's got to reverse his favorability slide while chipping away at McDonnell's. So far, that's obviously not happening.
On the web: Deeds for Governor