Quite a bit of news kicks off the month of September in the political arena, including some of the uglier polling results we have seen in quite some time. A little bit of polling to make Democrats smile, but a lot of frowns in the Tuesday wrap, as well.
VA-Gov: Deeds Closing on McDonnell, According to PPP
A month after showing Republican Bob McDonnell leading Democrat Creigh Deeds by fourteen points, the crew over at PPP show that Deeds has halved that margin in a month. McDonnell now holds just a seven-point edge (49-42). The poll was conducted largely before the revelations found in the McDonnell Manifesto. Jensen over at PPP notes that Deeds actually led in Sunday's sample, the only sample that would have included people who had read the WaPo piece. Of course, Jensen also responsibly notes that said sample had a margin of error over 10%, and thus should be taken with a major grain of salt.
NJ-Gov: Corzine NOT Closing on Christie, According to Two Pollsters
This qualifies as something of a surprise. If you are a Democrat, it also qualifies as something of a disappointment. A pair of polls released today, one by Fairleigh Dickinson and one by Quinnipiac, show margins in the Governors race that are essentially unchanged from before the litany of ethical lapses discovered regarding the GOP nominee. Quinnipiac has the margin at 10 points (47-37), while FDU has the margin at 5 points (47-42). If there is a saving grace for Corzine in this data, it comes in two data points: Christie's favorable/unfavorable spread has deterioriated considerably, and it appears that consolidating his Democratic base could bring Corzine within striking distance.
CO-Sen: NRSC Gets Caught With Hand In Internets Jar
Late last week, the nightly wrap-up had a short piece out of the state of Colorado which implied that base Republicans were a tad disgruntled at what they saw as a coronation of former Lt. Governor Jane Norton in the U.S. Senate race. The guess here is that today's revelation that the NRSC is building websites for Norton is probably not going to quell the rebellion. This virtually ensures that Norton will have company next year.
OR-Gov: Kitzhaber to Announce Wednesday--Looks To Be A Go
Democrats will no doubt be pleased with this news. It appears that John Kitzhaber, the popular former Governor of Oregon who served from 1995 to 2003, will announce tomorrow that he is running for Governor. Kitzhaber, who had to struggle with a Republican legislature throughout his tenure in office, would likely enjoy a Democratic legislature this time around, which appears to have been a factor. A physician by training, he was the instrumental force behind the Oregon Health Plan.
AR-Sen: Republicans Likely To Get Top Recruit to Challenge Lincoln
If last week's polling numbers gave Senator Blanche Lincoln pause, this news is unlikely to make her feel any comfort, either. After months of deliberation, it now appears that the Republicans found an undamaged Senate candidate--state Senator Gilbert Baker. Baker polled the strongest against Senator Lincoln in last week's PPP survey, leading the Democrat by two points (42-40).
NY-Gov/NY-Sen: Don't Call It A Comeback, I've Been Here For Years...
You just know you wanted to see Eliot Spitzer's second act. Well, you might get that chance. The hot rumor is that Spitzer is eyeing a political comeback. The two most likely places for him to land, apparently, are in the state comptroller's race, or in a Senate primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand. Amazingly, a new poll from SurveyUSA shows that Spitzer might not be dead meat politically. Over 60% of voters would either definitely vote for him in public office, or at least consider it. 39% of voters rejected the idea of a Spitzer return to office out of hand.
VT-Gov: Is A Familiar Name Returning to Vermont Politics?
(No, Kossacks, It's not Howard Dean)
One of the most famous surnames in Vermont GOP politics might be resurfacing in 2010, as the retirement of GOP Governor Jim Douglas has opened the playing field considerably. Mark Snelling, the son of former Governor Richard Snelling and former Lt. Governor Barbara Snelling, is flirting with either running for Governor or Lieutenant Governor. Unlike his parents and siblings, this Snelling is a political neophyte, having not run for elective office in his life. Unlike most Republicans, he is not willing to defer to the state's Lt. Governor, Republican Brian Dubie, who seems likely to run for the top job.
MA-Sen: First Name Appears Ready to Jump Into Senate Special
One has to imagine that the Democratic field for next January's special election to take the seat of the late Edward Kennedy will be crowded, indeed. It appears that the first name is surfacing for that seat: Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley. Coakley is the first major candidate to pull papers in the race. Most of the field on the Democratic side is frozen, waiting on the decision for former Congressman Joseph Kennedy II (the late Senator's nephew). Two candidates, Congressman Michael Capuano and former Congressman Marty Meehan, seem unlikely to make the bid if Kennedy jumps into the race.
CA-10: Special Election To Replace Tauscher Tonight
You have less than an hour, but if you are a East Bay Kossack, I'd remind you that the special primary election to replace Democrat Ellen Tauscher is today. In a fairly responsible move by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, he is giving firefighters an additional two hours to vote this evening (there are special elections both in Northern and Southern California). This will delay results until 10 PM Pacific.
OTHER POLLING NEWS: A Cavalcade of Ugly for the Democrats
It would take a whole lot of world-championship spinning to put lipstick on the porcine numbers coming out today for both President Obama and the Democrats. The ugliest nums with 2010 implications: PPP polled the generic Congressional ballot, and found the Republicans staked to the early lead (45-41) over the Democrats. One critical factor: the "likely electorate" has changed a great deal since November 2008. Whereas the exit polling from the Obama victory showed a seven-point Democratic advantage, that advantage has been whittled down to a single point. This echoes other recent pollsters, which might be an early indicator of a depressed Democratic base. Bad news also looms as September begins for President Obama: the monthly state-by-state approval numbers from SurveyUSA has several annual lows, including in potentially competitive political states like Virginia and New Mexico.