As we sail into midweek, we have a few pieces of headline campaign news, a couple of special election results that should make Democrats smile, and a handful of polling data that looks better than Democrats have seen in a while.
CA-10/IA-HD90: Democrats Look Good In Special Elections
As stated before, special elections are often sketchy barometers of electoral trends. That said, four consecutive specials have shown that if there is a Republican resurgence in America, it has not translated to actual votes in these small electoral microcosms. The latest example last night was a state legislative special in Iowa's rural 90th House District, where Democrat Curt Hanson defeated Republican Stephen Burgmeier 49-47 in a high-profile campaign that saw national groups wade into the race. Meanwhile, at the federal level, the primary election in California's 10th district went essentially as expected. Democrat John Garamendi and Republican David Harmer advanced to the runoff on November 3rd. The post-mortem of that campaign can be found here, but one key stat from last night's results: Democrats combined for over 64 percent of the primary vote, versus 34 percent of the vote for the GOP. That tracks the election results from 2008 almost down to the percentage point.
VA-Gov: Rasmussen Still Gives McDonnell A Solid Lead
A couple of days after Democrats were heartened by a significant tightening of the Virginia Governors race (per new polling by PPP), we get slightly different results from Rasmussen. Rasmussen has Republican Bob McDonnell staked to a nine-point lead (51-42) over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Rasmussen also claims that the "manifesto" story is not a big deal, with only 36% of voters saying it could make a difference in the election. PPP, as you will recall, had a sharp difference in how the race sized up on Friday and Saturday (before the WaPo story) and Sunday (after the story broke). They did caution, however, about a small Sunday sample.
MA-Sen: A Key Opponent to Vacancy Plan, Plus A Celebrity Candidate Sighting
Two fairly big, and fairly interesting stories, emerging from the still fluid electoral picture in Massachusetts, where a January special election will fill the seat of the late Edward Kennedy. On the "inside politics" front, a key opponent has emerged to Governor Deval Patrick's plan to appoint an interim senator to serve until the special election in early 2010. Democratic State Senator Brian Joyce, who sponsored the original legislation in 2004 to change the rules to a special election instead of an appointment, opposes any attempt to change that law. Meanwhile, on the electoral front, an intriguing name (amid a virtually nonexistent Republican bench) has emerged as a potential GOP suitor for the Senate seat: former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling. From the discussion on an early afternoon diary here at DK, the consensus is that he would be an interesting, but losing, candidate for the seat.
OR-Gov: Former Governor Kitzhaber Is Officially a Go For 2010
As long rumored, former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber jumped into the race today to replace Ted Kulongoski as Governor of Oregon. A quickie poll conducted by SurveyUSA shows that Kitzhaber had a favorability ratio of +7: not spectacular, but fairly strong. It was also stronger than the only Republican currently confirmed for the race: former statewide candidate Allen Alley, whose fav/unfav was a fairly anemic 8/10. Kitzhaber is the early-line favorite for this race, according to a late June Daily Kos poll. He has leads over the three leading Republicans ranging from 6-13 points.
NY-23: GOP Nominee Facing Questions About Business, Ideological Purity
Given the ancestral leans of the district, and a political neophyte as the Democratic nominee, it is hard not to categorize the special election to replace GOP Congressman John McHugh as anything other than a "Leans Republican" seat. That designation, however, might be changing. Republican nominee DeDe Scozzafava is facing unwanted scrutiny for her financial stake in her brother's holding company, which owes nearly $ 200,000 in back taxes and is financially unstable, according to filed reports and documents. Scozzafava's defense is that she is a passive investor, even though she is listed in several places as a company officer. Scozzafava has another problem: she is getting blasted from the right by Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, and some vocal conservatives are stating openly that he is their preferred candidate in the special election.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: Trio of New Candidates In 2010 House Races
Via the morning digest over at SSP, we see that there are three new candidates for House races next year in potentially competitive districts. For the Democrats, they get a familiar name in CA-24, where 2008 nominee Marta Jorgenson is back for round two in the suburban district to the northwest of Los Angeles. She may not be the last Democrat in this race, where the incumbent (oft-mentioned as a potential retiree) is Republican Elton Gallegly. Meanwhile, in IL-14, presumptive GOP nominee Ethan Hastert gets competition from a former city councilman from Aurora, Bill Cross. Meanwhile, in KS-03, Democratic incumbent Dennis Moore will be challenged by a potentially strong opponent in former state legislator Patricia Lightner. In other house race news, the Democrats got a top-tier recruit for freshman Republican Tom Rooney in Florida, as Democratic county commissioner Chris Craft announced his bid. Craft, in his mid-30s, was one of the top targets of the Democrats seeking to make this seat competitive.
POLLS: What A Difference A Day Makes....
If yesterday's national numbers were a fairly unrelenting downer, today's national numbers, on balance, are a bit more positive. A national poll from Ipsos-McClatchy had President Obama's approval at 56-40, and staked the Democrats to an eight-point (42-34) lead on the generic Congressional ballot test. A caveat--this poll has an incredibly unique party breakdown (45% I, 34% D, 22% R). Three other national pollsters chimed in today: CBS was the most bullish on Obama (56-37, +19), CNN was the most bearish on Obama (53-45, +8), with Pew splitting the difference (52-37, +15). Pew also polled the ballot test, but they had a smaller Democratic lead (45-44). Lastly, after flirting with going sub-50, President Obama's numbers on Gallup have rebounded somewhat, rising a few points to 54-40.