Not a lot of candidate news, but quite a slate of polling for a September evening. Let's get to it...
NJ-Gov: Two Pollsters Show GOP Lead Tightening
A pair of pollsters on opposite sides of the partisan spectrum are agreeing on one thing as we enter the final week of September: incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine is trimming the long-held lead of Republican nominee Chris Christie. The Dem-leaning team at Democracy Corps, perhaps not surprisingly, paint the rosier picture of the two, with their poll showing Corzine trailing by only a point (40-39-11). Last month, the margin was five points. Meanwhile, the GOP-friendly pollsters at Strategic Vision have a considerably wider lead for Christie of eight points (46-38-8). Even that is a considerable improvement for Corzine, who trailed by fifteen points in an SV poll taken earlier in the summer.
VA-Gov: Deeds Within Striking Distance As Wilder Stays on Sidelines
Thursday was a good news/bad news day for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds as a new poll shows him in the game with Republican Bob McDonnell, but a potentially crucial endorsement fell by the wayside. A new Insider Advantage survey sponsored by Politico gives McDonnell just a four-point lead in his battle with Deeds (48-44). This confirms several polls taken last week, which had McDonnell leading by seven points or less after months of double-digit leads. The downside for Deeds? He learned today that former Governor Doug Wilder, a Democrat who served from 1989 to 1993, will stick to his tradition of not endorsing candidates in the gubernatorial race. It was the worst of both worlds for Deeds, because earlier in this week, the rumor mill was filled with speculation that Wilder would depart from custom and endorse Deeds. Wilder took the opportunity to tweak Deeds on guns, giving that as part of the reason for his decision to stay neutral.
NY-Gov/NY-Sen: Numbers Mixed For Gillibrand, Bad For Paterson
A pair of new polls out of the Empire State show that Kirsten Gillibrand might just hang onto her Senate seat even if former Governor George Pataki comes calling, while David Paterson's decision to dig in his heels in his gubernatorial campaign is not translating to better poll numbers. Rasmussen is actually more favorable to Paterson than most pollsters have been, having the embattled incumbent in a tie with Rick Lazio (38-38) and only down eleven points to Rudy Giuliani (50-39). As with other polls, however, Andrew Cuomo destroys Paterson in a Democratic primary bid (61-27), and defeats either Giuliani or Lazio. An interesting (and un-Rasmussen-like) twist: this poll has Cuomo defeating both Lazio (65-26) or Giuliani (58-37) in total landslides. Meanwhile, Rasmussen also polls the Senate race, and gives appointed Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand with a modest lead over former Governor George Pataki (44-41). Meanwhile, another pollster (Marist College) looks at New York (PDF file), and release two findings: 1) Few in New York want Paterson to run for Governor (25-63), and 2) Pataki has a narrow lead over Gillibrand (45-41).
MA-Gov: Deval Patrick Benefits From Split Opposition
A slightly dusty poll from Suffolk (one week old) shows an interesting dichotomy developing in the Massachusetts Governors race. Patrick's re-elect stands at an anemic 29%, yet he has a double-digit lead in the race, because his opposition is split in half. In a sign of how anemic the GOP performs in Massachusetts, they run third behind Patrick and Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill in both trial heats. Against GOP health care executive Charlie Baker, Patrick leads 36-23-14. Against 2006 Independent nominee-turned-Republican Christy Mihos, Patrick leads 26-24-17. Interestingly, given the fact that Mihos should have superior name recognition from his '06 bid, Baker has a clear lead over Mihos in the GOP primary (43-19).
NY-23: Right-Wing Poll Has Dems Within Three in Special Election
The special election to replace moderate Republican (and Obama Sec. of the Army) John McHugh could develop into a true three-way tossup, if a new poll commissioned by the Club for Growth is to be believed. According to the survey, GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava leads with just 20% of the vote, followed closely by both Democrat Bill Owens and Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, both sitting at 17%. Politico reports that internal polls from both parties lie in similar territory. The election is expected to occur on November 3rd.
AZ-Sen: McCain in Safe Zone, According to PPP
A day after saying that Democrat Terry Goddard would handily beat incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer, PPP gives some good news to the Republicans today for 2010, reporting that incumbent Senator John McCain holds double digit leads over three prospective candidates. He has huge leads over (unlikely to run) Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (57-30) and (more likely to run) Rodney Glassman (55-25). Even former Governor Janet Napolitano does not generate a sweat for McCain, who leads the Obama cabinet officer by thirteen points (53-40). Interestingly, McCain holds a mediocre job approval spread (48/42), which intimates that a lot of Republicans in Arizona will be participating in a little bit of clothespin voting.
IA-Gov: Former Governor Blasts Current Governor, According To Ras
Rasmussen, one day after implying that Senator Chuck Grassley is safe in the Hawkeye State, have an eye-popping account of the Governor's race in the same state. Rasmussen says that either former Governor Terry Branstad or little-known candidate Bob VanderPlatts would defeat incumbent Governor Chet Culver. They have Branstad up twenty on the incumbent (54-34), while VanderPlatts leads by four (43-39). One reason to raise an eyebrow: Rasmussen has Culver's job approval at a fairly brutal 43/53 spread, which is dramatically different than the numbers grabbed by the respected Des Moines Register poll last weekend, which had Culver sitting on a 50/39 spread.
RACE FOR THE HOUSE: New National Poll Gives Dems Large Gen. Ballot Edge
The last two weeks have seen several polls giving the Democrats a modest lead on the "generic ballot test", after several weeks of results within the margin of error. A new poll by Franklin and Marshall College (PDF File) has the Democrats out to a sizeable advantage of thirteen points (43-30). Obama's approval in the same poll is similar to other recent polls, perhaps even a bit more pessimistic (51/47), which rebuts one clear "outlier" argument.
WI-Gov/WI-03: Democrat Ron Kind Decides To Stay In The House
After some speculation that he would enter the race for Governor next year, longtime 3rd district Congressman Ron Kind has decided to run for re-election to Congress, instead. The DCCC will greet this with a cheer. Although Democrats would probably be a slight favorite to hold the open seat, this is a swing district, and the GOP already had a well-known horse in the race in the person of state legislator Dan Kapanke. There are already a couple of viable Dems eyeing the open-seat Governor's race in Wisconsin, including Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and state Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton.