Unlike most "weekend kickoff" editions of the Wrap, there's no Friday light this week. As the political news continues to build as we progress towards a special election that now has everyone's attention, there is no shortage of other political news stories to peruse in the Friday edition of the Wrap...
AR-02: SUSA Poll Has Bad News For Dem, Who Then Calls It Quits
If Democrat Vic Snyder had long planned to announce his retirement today, the timing of a poll released by FDL late last night could not have been worse. The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA on FDL's behalf, found Republican Tim Griffin leading Snyder by seventeen points (56-39). Snyder's retirement leaves a Democratic open seat in a swing district that, if anything, leans ever so slightly to the GOP (McCain carried the district 54-44 in 2008). The good news is that the ancestrally-Democratic lean of the Little Rock-based 2nd district gives Democrats a deep bench to tap for the race. Among the candidates being rumored are Lt. Governor Bill Halter, Little Rock Mayor Mark Stodola, and state legislators Robbie Wills and Joyce Elliott. One wild card name being mentioned is state senator Bob Johnson, who was last seen contemplating a primary challenge to Senator Blanche Lincoln...to her right.
MA-Sen: Brown Leads In A Late-Breaking ARG Poll
American Research Group (or ARG, as they are affectionately known) has jumped into the Massachusetts Senate polling game, and they find Republican Scott Brown up three on Democrat Martha Coakley. Among the more amazing findings: Brown wins 20% of the Democratic vote while Coakley manages to pick off just 1% of the GOP vote. Meanwhile, in a reversal of previous electoral trends, Brown does better with younger voters than with older voters (although it is worth noting the ARG groups these curiously, putting them in two groups: 18-49 and 50+).
MN-Gov: Democrats In Lead For Gubernatorial Pickup In Minny
When Rasmussen polled the Democratic and GOP primaries in Minnesota this week, it was curious that they did not release general election polling in that race. Someone else has, however, and the numbers point to a Democratic Pickup in the state. The poll, conducted for the St. Paul Pioneer-Press by a pollster called Decision Resources, shows former Democratic Senator Mark Dayton up ten points (41-31) on former GOP Senator Norm Coleman, who has not formally announced his bid. Dayton has a wider edge of sixteen points on GOP state legislator Marty Seifert. The good news for Democrats is that state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher also leads Coleman, albeit by a lesser margin (33-31).
NY-Sen: Gillibrand Out In Front, According to Marist
With the ever-increasing likelihood that Tennessee transplant Harold Ford Jr. is going to plan a primary challenge to the right of Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Marist elected to poll the race, and their results are telling. Remember that last summer, when it seemed like Manhattan Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney was contemplating a bid, that the two of them were deadlocked in the primary. Gillibrand's relatively low name recognition (the side effect of being an appointee rather than an elected senator) seemed to stunt her polling performances. As we head into 2010, however, the picture is slightly different: Gillibrand enjoys a nineteen-point lead over Ford (43-24) in the Democratic primary. In the general election, Gillibrand has a three-point edge (45-42) over former GOP Governor George Pataki. Pataki is probably the only top-tier Republican left considering the race, although the general consensus is that he will not run, when all is said and done.
CA-Sen: Rasmussen Sees Tightening Race in Boxer Re-Elect Bid
Rasmussen takes its monthly look at the U.S. Senate race in the Golden State, and finds a race that is tightening up, compared to previous months. Three-term Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer continues to hold a lead, but the margins are certainly thinning. Carly Fiorina comes the closest, trailing Boxer by three points (46-43). Senate race newcomer Tom Campbell trails by four points (46-42), while right-wing insurgent candidate Chuck DeVore trails by six points (46-40). Meanwhile, Team Campbell is circulating internal polling giving their man a formidable lead in the GOP primary. The poll shows Campbell leading with 31% of the vote, well ahead of both Fiorina (15%) and DeVore (12%).
NV-Sen (2012): Philandering Senator Ensign is...Leading?
PPP, while also polling about the dire straits that Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid finds himself in, took some time to ask about the prospects for scandal-tarred Republican U.S. Senator John Ensign. His prospects are better than you'd think. In a shocker, Ensign holds leads over all three prospective Democratic challengers: he leads Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (43-41), Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (49-40), and Ross Miller (47-36). What could explain this? PPP's Tom Jensen explains it, at least in part: it seems that Republican voters, for all their prattling about moral values, seem to have forgiveness in their hearts for straying Republicans. Both David Vitter and John Ensign polled extremely well with Republican voters, despite their very public personal failings.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- MI-Gov/MI-01: After he flirted very openly earlier this week with the idea of abandoning his seat in Congress and running for the post of Governor, Democratic Congressman Bart Stupak hit the brakes hard today in an interview with Politico. In an interview with Patrick O'Connor, Stupak cited a lack of prep time, and the demands of fundraising, as reasons that he is unlikely to pull the trigger on a gubernatorial campaign. He also cited his duties in the House, particularly on health care. Stupak and Michigan House Speaker Andy Dillon (who now looks likely to be a candidate) would have anchored the right-of-center positions in the primary, while national Democrats seem to be trying to entice UM Regent Denise Ilitch into a bid.
- NC-Sen: In an interesting twist, the Democratic candidate who is probably the least known among the first-tier of 2010 aspirants snagged a fairly impressive endorsement today. Kenneth Lewis, the attorney who has been in the race the longest but has been overshadowed by the higher-horsepower names of Elaine Marshall and Cal Cunningham, received the endorsement of Congressman G.K. Butterfield today.
- WY-Gov: While the gubernatorial race in Wyoming is somewhat frozen by the consternation over whether or not Governor Dave Freudenthal will be allowed to forgo term limits and seek a third term, a first-tier Republican has decided to jump into the race. State Auditor Rita Meyer is jumping into the field, becoming the fourth Republican to announce that they are considering the race. State House Speaker Colin Simpson, the son of former US Senator Alan Simpson, already has formed an exploratory committee, along with former US Attorney Matt Mead and former state legislator Ron Micheli.
- UT-02: In a sign that Democratic incumbent Jim Matheson may well be on his target list, attorney Morgan Philpot resigned his position in the leadershgip of the Utah Republican Party. Philpot has been rumored for a few months to be contemplating a Congressional bid. Philpot nearly ran for Congress ten years ago, and served in the Utah state legislature, as well. Matheson has defied the prevailing winds of his district, getting re-elected throughout the decade despite the strong Republican lean of his district.
- NC-11: One GOP prospect in a potentially vulnerable Democratic district has sensed enough of a climate change to reverse his previous decsion and run for Congress, after all. The candidate is Jeff Miller, a businessman who initially resisted GOP entreaties to get him to run last Fall. He faces a crowded GOP primary in the western North Carolina district, which has been held since 2006 by Democrat Heath Shuler.
- AL-05: This will surprise absolutely no one, but nouveau Republican Congressman Parker Griffith is already wriggling out of his commitment to refund campaign donations from betrayed Democratic donors. After initially making a blanket promise to do so, he immediately backtracked and said he would not return any money the DCCC spent on his behalf. He amended that later to include any donations from the 2008 cycle, arguing that those funds have long been spent. Of course, this only enhances the argument (which I made last month) that he only ran as a Democrat last year to exploit the huge financial advantages that Democrats had over the GOP in that campaign cycle.
- THE MONEY CHASE: No one wants to make news on a Friday, usually. Which might explain the relative paucity of campaign fundraising reports as we head into the weekend. Good news for Democrats out of Colorado, however, where GOP frontrunner Jane Norton raised less than half the amount in the 4th quarter than that of her opponent, Democratic Senator Michael Bennet. Bennet raised over $ 1.1 million in the fourth quarter, while Norton lagged well behind at just over half a million dollars for the same time period. Another GOPer staring up at his Democratic opponent is PA-15 Congressman Charlie Dent, whose quarterly haul of just over $ 350,000 ran about thirty grand behind Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan, who announced his totals yesterday. One GOP candidate had an impressive take: Delaware's Mike Castle, who raised just over a million dollars for the quarter.