With virtually all eyes in the political world on Massachusetts, let this serve as a quick update of the other political news and notes from the other 49 states. A couple of new polls (one of which is pretty decent for the Democrats) and a few candidate announcements grace the MLK Day edition of the Wrap....
UT-Gov: Democrats Might Prove Competitive...In Utah?!
In a sign of how absolutely topsy-turvy the 2010 election cycle has been, leave it to the ruby red state of Utah to provide positive polling news for the Democrats. A new poll from Dan Jones and Associates (one of the more well-known pollsters in-state) has Republican Governor Gary Herbert up thirteen points on new Democratic candidate Peter Corroon (48-35). While that might not seem like anything to hang on the refrigerator, it represents a shift to the Democrat of eleven points in just two months (Herbert had a 56-32 lead in November). Corroon, the mayor of Salt Lake County, announced his gubernatorial bid last week. Herbert took over in August of 2009 for Jon Huntsman, who became the Ambassador to China.
OH-01: Chabot Looks Good in '08 Rematch, According to SUSA
Firedoglake continues to ask SurveyUSA to poll vulnerable House races, and SUSA continues to find Democratic incumbents in pretty serious danger. This time around, SUSA finds freshman Democrat Steve Driehaus down seventeen (56-39) to his predecessor, longtime GOP Congressman Steve Chabot. This follows on the heels on another FDL/SUSA poll, which had the now-retiring Vic Snyder down double digits to Republican Tim Griffin.
CO-Sen: Bennet Internal Poll Has Incumbent Down 3 Points
Late last week, Rasmussen released a poll from the state of Colorado showing incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet down a dozen points to leading GOP candidate Jane Norton. That poll was countered by a pair of polls over the past few days. One poll came from us here at DK, which had Bennet and Norton in a one-point race. The other came from the Bennet campaign, which released over the weekend an internal poll showing a Norton lead over just three points (43-40).
NY-Sen: Gillibrand Leads Ford, Trails Pataki, According to Siena
In another poll out of New York amid news that former Tennessee Congressman Harold Ford Jr. is planning a Senate bid in the Empire State, Siena College (PDF file) looks at the Senate race and finds that Gillibrand leads comfortably (41-17, with 5% for Jonathan Tasini) over the New York newcomer. In the general election, however, Siena sees a major reversal of fortune. They give Republican George Pataki a 51-38 lead over Gillibrand. Worth noting, however: few people at this stage expect Pataki to run for the Senate.
NY-Gov: Little Change in the Dynamics of Gubernatorial Race
Siena also polls (PDF File) the governor's race in New York, and finds little change from previous months. Andrew Cuomo still blasts Governor Paterson in the primary and any and all Repubican comers in the general election. Governor Paterson, should he be the Democratic nominee, runs even with either former Congressman Rick Lazio or Erie County Executive Chris Collins. For the first time, Siena asks about another Democrat--Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy . Levy gets bounced in the Democratic primary (Cuomo leads with 59%, versus 21% for Paterson and 6% for Levy), but leads either Republican by margins ranging from 7-16 points.
TX-Gov: Rasmussen Gives Perry A Lead, Teabagger A Lifeline
Rasmussen decided not to poll the Massachusetts special election (although, quixotically, they decided to do a national poll on who voters wanted to win in Massachusetts). They did, however, release a poll on one of the hotter upcoming state primaries--in Texas. They give Governor Rick Perry a ten-point edge over Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (43-33). They also give teabagger activist Debra Medina her best performance in any poll to date, putting her at 12% of the vote. They also note that she is the only one of the three candidates increasing his/her share of the vote.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- MN-Gov: Republicans, who have had little difficulty in enticing their leading recruits to make 2010 bids, lost one of their big ones last night with the news that former U.S. Senator Norm Coleman has decided not to run for Governor this year. Coleman had been the runaway favorite for the Republican nomination in a Rasmussen poll on the race last week. With him out of the fold, state legislator Marty Seifert is the name getting the most attention, though a poll last week had him trailing Democrat Mark Dayton by sixteen points.
- NM-Gov: Republicans have been angling for a top-tier candidate in the Land of Enchantment for quite some time. They might have their man, with the news that attorney Pete Domenici Jr. has decided to make a bid for Governor. Democrats had already had their top recruit in the race for some time in the person of Lt. Governor Diane Denish. Domenici is a political newcomer, but his father's status as a Senator from the state for over a quarter of a century will undoubtedly push him into the forefront of a field which is currently populated by a county DA, a state legislator and the state GOP chairman.
- IL-Gov: Lest you think that the Massachusetts Senate race was the only one where claims of hinky polling were burning up the internets, there is a neat little kerfluffle developing on the GOP side of the gubernatorial primary (which is 15 days away). Three of the leading GOP candidates, Kirk Dillard, Jim Ryan, and Andy McKenna, all have surrogates flogging polling data claiming that they are in the lead. Curiously, in a state where elections are right around the corner, there has been almost no public polling on the race.
- CO-Sen/CO-Gov: Don't know what to make of this yet, other than to say "stay tuned". Andrew Romanoff tweeted tonight that he will be holding a press conference tomorrow at noon at his campaign HQ. With the retirement of Governor Bill Ritter last week, there had been a lot of speculation that Romanoff would leap from his Senate primary against Senator Michael Bennet into the gubernatorial campaign. That seemed less likely after popular Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper got into the gov's race at the end of the week. So he could be announcing that he is sticking with his challenge to Bennet or going into the Dem primary against Hickenlooper. For all we know, there could be an "option C", as well.
- WV-01: Democrats still looking over their shoulder for potentially vulnerable open seats got the opportunity to draw a sigh of relief today with the news that longtime Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan has filed his papers for re-election to Congress for a 15th term in the House. Mollohan, first elected in 1982, was challenged by the stoutly funded Chris Wakim in 2006, but was re-elected easily nevertheless. His district is in red-leaning territory in the northern tier of the state, which has steadily moved rightward over the last two decades.
- AR-02: Despite the retirement of Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder in this very marginal district, Dem prospects here are looking up a little bit after the weekend. Democrats have a number of very viable candidates eyeing the contest. Chief among them: state Lt. Governor Bill Halter, who confirmed in a statement today that he is considering a bid. However, and this could be important, he noted that he is "considering all options," which seems to indicate that a primary challenge to Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln might still be on the table.
- PA-04: Another Democrat in a marginal district has drawn a decent challenger, although this one is far from unexpected. As has been rumored for months, Republican Mary Beth Buchanan, a former U.S. Attorney, has decided to throw her hat in the ring against Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire. Altmire won the district from longtime Republican Rep. Melissa Hart in 2006, and then defended it against her in 2008.