Summary:
Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.
Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans.
Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans.
Kansas has 4 representatives: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans.
Vulnerable are
IL-06 (R)
IL-10 (R)
IL-11 (D)
IL-14 (D)
IN-02 (D)
IN-08 (D)
IN-09 (D)
IA-03 (D)
KS-04 now open but was (R)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).
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District: IL-01
Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 34
Representative Bobby Rush (D)
VoteView rank 50.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 86-14 over Antoine Members
2006 margin 84-16
2004 margin 85-15
Obama margin 87-13
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Ray Wardingley
Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. Rush has $141K COH. No info on Wardingley
District: IL-02
Location South side of Chicago and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 36
Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D)
VoteView rank 14
First elected 1995
2008 margin 89-11 over Anthony Williams
2006 margin 85-12
2004 margin 88-12
Obama margin 90-10
Bush margin 2004 16-84
Current opponents Isaac Hayes (no, not THE Isaac Hayes)
Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)
Assessment Safe. Jackson has $350K COH, Hayes has little.
District: IL-03
Location Southwestern Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Dan Lipinski (D)
VoteView rank 192.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin 73-21 over Michael Hawkins
2006 margin 77-23
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents Michael Bendas
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Lipinski has half a million COH, Bendas has little.
District: IL-04
Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that's saying something!) this one...looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle. It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side. map.
Cook PVI D + 32
Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)
VoteView rank 45
First elected 1992
2008 margin 81-11 over Daniel Cunningham
2006 margin 86-14
2004 margin 84-12
Obama margin 85-13
Bush margin 2004 21-79
Current opponents No Republican, but there is a Green candidate
Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)
Assessment No opponent
District: IL-05
Location North side of Chicago, from the lake west to O'Hare map
Cook PVI D + 19
Representative Mike Quigley
First elected 2009
VoteView rank NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents David Ratowitz (R) and a Green candidate
Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)
Assessment Safe. Quigley has $300K COH, Ratowitz has little.
District: IL-06
Location Western suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Peter Roskam (R)
VoteView rank 381
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-42 over Jill Morgenthaler
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Ben Lowe
Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)
Assessment This is almost a swing district, but Roskam has over $1 million COH, while Lowe has little. Plus Roskam is now the incumbent. Looks safe for Roskam.
District: IL-07
Location Chicago's Loop and nearby map
Cook PVI D + 35
Representative Danny Davis (D)
VoteView rank 20.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 85-15 over Steve Miller
2006 margin 87-13
2004 margin 86-14
Obama margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Current opponents Mark Weiman
Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate - $40K)
Assessment Safe. Davis has $366K COH, no info on Weiman.
District: IL-08
Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Melissa Bean (D)
VoteView rank 226
First elected 2004
2008 margin 60-40 over Steve Greenberg
2006 margin 51-44 (remainder "moderate" party)
2004 margin 52-48
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents Joe Walsh
Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)
Assessment After two close races, Bean won easily in 2008, doing even better than Obama. She has over $1 million COH, an established moderate record that suits this swing district. Walsh has only $30K COH, and is a right winger.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe
District: IL-09
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI D + 20
Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)
VoteView rank 23
First elected 1998
2008 margin 75-22 over Michael Younan
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin 76-24
Obama margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 32-68
Current opponents Joel Pollak
Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)
Assessment Safe. Schakowsky has half a million COH, Pollak has little.
District: IL-10
Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Mark Kirk (R) Running for Senate
VoteView rank NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents Democrat Dan Seals; Republican Bob Dold.
Assessment Hard to say. Each has roughly $750 K COH; I'd guess Seals has better name recognition from his previous runs. Dold is a businessman (he runs a pest control company), Seals is a former teacher and now a business consultant. This will be hard fought
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup (for lack of a strong sense of what's going on)
District: IL-11
Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Debbie Halvorson (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 58-34 over Marty Ozinga
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 53-46
Current opponents Adam Kinzinger
Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks
Assessment Halvorsen has $1.4 million COH, Kinzinger about $500K. A recent poll had Kinzinger 49-31
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean R. Obama got some favorite son votes here; this is a slightly R district. Halvorson has more COH and the incumbency. But polls look bad.
District: IL-12
Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Jerry Costello (D)
VoteView rank 189
First elected 1988
2008 margin 72-25 over Timmy Richardson
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 69-29
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents Teri Newman
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Costello has $2.5 million COH, no info on Newman
District: IL-13
Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Judy Biggert (R)
VoteView rank 293
First elected 1998
2008 margin 54-44 over Scott Harper
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Scott Harper is running again.
Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)
Assessment Harper was 10 points behind in a Democratic year, with Obama's coattails. I wish him luck, but right now, it doesn't look too hopeful. Biggert has $900K or so COH, Harper about $200K. Both have debt.
District: IL-14
Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Bill Foster (D)
VoteView rank 228
First elected 2008
2008 margin 57-43 over Jim Oberweis
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Randy Hultgren
Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Foster, a conservative Democrat, fits this district well. Foster has about $1.5 million COH, but a lot of debt. Hultgren about $240K. A Republican poll showed Hultgren up by 6.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup
District: IL-15
Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Tim Johnson (R)
VoteView rank 247
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-36 over Steve Cox
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Current opponents David Gill
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot, Gill has lost to Johnson at least twice. Johnson has about $200K COH, Gill has little
District: IL-16
Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Don Manzullo (R)
VoteView rank 345
First elected 1992
2008 margin 61-36 over Robert Abboud
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents George Gaulrapp
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot. Manzullo has about $400K COH, Gaulrapp has little.
District: IL-17
Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield
map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Phil Hare (D)
VoteView rank 151
First elected 2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Bobby Schilling
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Hare has about $900K COH, Schilling about $200K. A Republican poll showed Hare up 38-37.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D. Incumbent, more money, better polls.
District: IL-18
Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Aaron Schock (R)
VoteView rank NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 59-38 over Coleen Callahan
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Deirdre Hirner
Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)
Assessment Safe for Repubs. Schock has about $450K COH, Hirner has little.
District: IL-19
Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south and east to the IN and KY border map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative John Shimkus (R)
VoteView rank 307
First elected 1996
2008 margin 64-33 over Dan Davis
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Tim Bagwell.
Demographics
Assessment Long shot. Shimkus has almost $1.5 million COH, Bagwell has little.
District: IN-01
Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Peter Visclosky (D)
VoteView 127
First elected 1984
2008 margin 71-27 over Mark Leyva
2006 margin 70-27
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Mark Leyva
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Visclosky has $700K COH, Leyva has little.
District: IN-02
Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Joe Donnelly (D)
VoteView 235
First elected 2006
2008 margin 67-30 over Luke Puckett
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents Jackie Walorski
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Donnelly has $1 million COH, Walorski about $300K. A recent poll showed Donnelly up 48-39
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D. More money, better polling, incumbency.
District: IN-03
Location Northeastern IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Mark Souder (R) Resigned in scandal
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents Thomas Hayhurst (D). Martin Stutzman (R).
Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI
Assessment Ordinarily safe for Republicans, but Souder resigned after winning primary. Hayhurst has $280K COH, Stutzman about $40K, but this is strongly Republican territory.
District: IN-04
Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Steve Buyer (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Current opponents Republican: Todd Rokita. Democrat: David Sanders
Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Rokita has $60K COH, Sanders has little.
District: IN-05
Location Central IN, including northern and eastern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Dan Burton (R)
VoteView 410
First elected 1982
2008 margin 66-34 over Mary Ruley
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 72-26
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents Tim Crawford
Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Burton has $115K COH, no info on Crawford.
District: IN-06
Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Mike Pence (R)
VoteView 431
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-33 over Barry Welsh
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents Barry Welsh.
Demographics 41st fewest Latinos
Assessment Safe for Republicans. Pence has $700K COH, Welsh has little.
District: IN-07
Location Indianapolis and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Andre Carson (D)
VoteView 147
First elected 2008
2008 margin 65-35 over Gabrielle Campo
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 71-28
Bush margin 2004 42-58
Current opponents Marvin Scott
Demographics 50th most Blacks (29.4%)
Assessment safe. Carson has about $400K COH, Scott has little.
District: IN-08
Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Brad Ellsworth (D) Running for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Trent VanHaaften (D), Larry Bucshon (R)
Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat, fit the district well, running way ahead of both Bush and Obama. Van Haaften looks like the same sort of Democrat; Bucshon looks like a Tea Partier, which helps. Bucshon has $200K COH, Van Haaften about $400K but Bucshon gave himself $55K.
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Tossup. This is Republican territory, but it's a blue dog vs. a nut job, so who knows?
District: IN-09
Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Baron Hill (D)
VoteView 229
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-38 over Mike Sodrel
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Todd Young
Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment After a close race in 2006, Hill won easily in 2008. He has over $1 million COH, Young about $250K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D
District: IA-01
Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bruce Braley (D)
VoteView 151
First elected 2006
2008 margin 64-36 over David Hartsuch
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 58-51
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents Benjamin Lange
Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)
Assessment Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent in 2006. Braley has $600K COH, Lange about $100K
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating
District: IA-02
Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dave Loebsack (D)
VoteView 93
First elected 2006
2008 margin 67-39 over Mariannete Miller Meeks
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-38
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Mariannette Miller Meeks
Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)
Assessment This is an increasingly Democratic district, and Loebsack should be OK; he beat the same opponent easily last time. Loebsack has over $500K COH, Miller Meeks about $100K.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating:
District: IA-03
Location Central IA, including Des Moines map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Leonard Boswell (D)
VoteView 194.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 56-42 over Kim Schmett
2006 margin 52-46
2004 margin 55-45
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)
Current opponents Brad Zaun.
Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)
Assessment Boswell has won easily in this swing district, and he should be OK. He has $700K COH and Zaun about $100K
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Likely D
District: IA-04
Location Northern central IA, including Ames map.
Cook PVI Even
Representative Tom Latham (R)
VoteView 290
First elected 1994
2008 margin 61-39 over Becky Greenwald
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents Bill Maske
Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)
Assessment Latham has won easily in the past
in this swing district. Latham should be safe. He has $750K COH and Maske has little.
District: IA-05
Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Steve King (R)
VoteView 419
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over Rob Hubler
2006 margin 59-36
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents Matthew Campbell.
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)
Assessment Safe for Republicans. King is something of a nut, even for a Republican, but he wins easily. He has $300K COH, Campbell has little
District: KS-01
Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO map
Cook PVI R + 23
Representative Jerry Moran (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 72-26
Current opponents Alan Jilka (D), Tim Huelsckamp (R)
Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%)
Assessment Huelskamp is safe. Huelskamp has $250K COH, Jilka has little.
District: KS-02
Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Lynn Jenkins (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-46 over Nancy Boyda
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 59-39
Current opponents Cheryl Hudspeth
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Jenkins seems safe. She has $800K COH, no info on Hudspeth.
District: KS-03
Location Kansas City and suburbs map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Dennis Moore (D) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Stephene Moore (D), Kevin Yoder (R)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Yoder has half a million COH, Moore about $200K
SSP rating: Lean R
My rating: Lean R
District: KS-04
Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Todd Tiahrt (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 64-34
Current opponents Mike Pompeo (R), Raj Goyle (D).
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment With Tiahrt out, this might be in play. Goyle is raising money like crazy, and has over $700K COH, no info on Pompeo. But this is a strongly Republican district
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Likely R