I've spent a few hours today trying to decide whether to scare the hell out of you or not.
Pulses have quickened up in NY-25 as a spate of stories make this race between Dan Maffei and Ann Marie Buerkle sound tighter than previously thought.
Perk up your ears: As former President Clinton came in to stump for Maffei, a new poll came out giving hope to Buerkle, and Politico touted that poll in their Monday Morning Score Thread, as a "Live One in N.Y." This morning has brought stories and tweets coming out of the local Tea Party and Buerkle's camp touting this as a big deal. And just a couple of hours ago Buerkle got another boost when the NRCC added her to their "Young Guns" Contenders list.
NY-25 has not been considered especially competitive this Midterm season given it is a D+3 district and has been riding a set of predictions and fund raising that made it almost laughable to think any but a seriously well-known and well-funded Republican could take it away from Freshman incumbent Maffei.
So should Dems be freaking out a little today?
Politico played it this way:
HOUSE RACE SNAPSHOT – LIVE ONE IN N.Y. – New York Republican Ann Marie Buerkle is one point up against Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei, according to a poll conducted for Buerkle by the Republican firm McLaughlin & Associates. Buerkle now takes 40 percent of the vote to Maffei’s 39 percent of the vote, with just over a fifth of the electorate still undecided. The Republican nominee has struggled with fundraising, but pollster John McLaughlin argues in a memo that the fundamentals of the race are strong for her: "Between the generic ballot, the head-to-head ballot and the choice model, the results are clear – the voters want to elect Republican Ann Marie Buerkle. ... As she continues to be on the radio, television and mail, Buerkle’s ballot share will continue to increase and she will defeat Maffei." In addition to the GOP nomination, Buerkle is also running on the Independence and Conservative Party ballot lines, which could give her another extra boost thanks to New York’s system of fusion voting.
Buerkle is making as much of it as she can with a press release and social media push based on the Politico blurb and the poll results.
Part of me wants to chuckle and think everyone can see exactly what I do. An effort to make use of a dubious poll result to get a little buzz and pull in some money from the NRCC and outside sources.
First the good news:
The McLaughlin poll should be taken with a softball sized grain of salt. Why?
a) It's a poll paid for by the candidate herself, and run by a Republican firm (they never like to disappoint the ones paying them)
b) Touting a 1% lead when it has an error margin of +/- 4.9%- is slicing the results pretty thin in order to be able to say that it puts Buerkle ahead of Maffei.
c) The polling firm wore its heart on it's sleeve in its summary message: "With adequate resources the Buerkle campaign will continue on this trajectory and defeat Maffei in November." With. Adequate. Resources.
How does this poll change the landscape? Here's a clue:
Nate Silver's predictive model absorbed the poll and spit out a new still has an Oct 8th prediction for the race -- putting Maffei at a 94.7% chance of winning, down from 96.3%. It puts Maffei's lead at 11+% with a +/- 7+%
So then why does this poll matter? Because it gave Buerkle a hook in order to spin off a bunch of things going out today, like the Young Guns "Contender" status, which I'm sure she lined up the second the poll report hit her email. "Young Guns" Contender designation signals to National Republican PACs and IE's (Independent Expenditure) groups that it's not a complete waste to throw some money and attention her way. And money is what Buerkle needs most right now, when Maffei has been working with much more cash on hand.
Now I need to scare you.
I haven't seen internal #'s from Maffei, and there hasn't been a poll by either a non-partisan or Democratic firm since summer. Could the race have gotten tight enough to be worrisome? I'm going to go with yes, if only on the grounds that you don't put Former President Clinton on the road to your district if you are holding summer's nearly 20% lead. You get the rock stars up here if you are getting concerned.
Based on that gut-check, it means we now have to step up being clear on what a vote for Ann Marie Buerkle means in NY-25:
Make no mistake Ann Marie Buerkle is a Tea Party candidate:
At a Tea Party Tax Day rally in April, Buerkle played the "our nation is headed in the wrong direction" message, without speaking about a single specific position.
At a rally in Webster recently she stuck to that theme telling voters: "If we don't get the Congress back this November, by 2012 we're not going to recognize the United States of America." and "We lose more and more freedoms every day."
Buerkle takes her cues from John Boehner. Her plan means repealing Health Care Reform including reforms that have already helped Americans: protections for families that ensure their children won't be denied coverage for pre-existing conditions, protections for young people who can now stay on their parent's plans through age 26 (critically important at a time when young people are among the hardest hit by the unemployment crunch), and the closing of the Medicare prescription drug "Donut Hole".
Buerkle continues to claim at speeches and in videos of "this administration" that "they have raised our taxes". This is patently untrue, regardless of how often Tea Party candidates repeat that lie. As Bruce Barlett, a fiscal conservative who worked both the George W Bush and Reagan administrations pointed out about the misinformed Tea Party:
"Federal taxes are very considerably lower by every measure since Obama became president.... and last year’s stimulus bill, enacted with no Republican support, reduced federal taxes by almost $100 billion in 2009 and another $222 billion this year."
And despite the spin out there that the Tea Party is not about social issues, remember one thing more:
Ann Marie Buerkle isn't just personally pro-life. She is an activist who has been spokesperson for Operation Rescue as they have protested at the entrance of doctor's offices to intimidate women seeking medical care. While Buerkle has publicly claimed that she isn't making abortion part of this election: "I want to be really careful not to make this a referendum on abortion", that didn't stop her from attending an anti-abortion rally just last week. Don't be fooled -- if Ann Marie Buerkle has a vote, women and their doctors will lose any power to make private medical decisions, even in cases of rape, incest and the woman's health.
Bottom line - if the race between Dan Maffei and Ann Marie Buerkle is anywhere near to close, I want you scared. Because someone who continues to parrot false and divisive Tea Party slogans, and won't tell you up front that she is and has long been personally bent on stripping reproductive rights from women should scare the hell out of you.
So it's time to wake up in NY-25. Talk to your family and neighbors, make calls, get them worried too and get them out to vote, whether they are getting ready to mail in their absentee ballots now, or going to the polls in a couple of weeks. We can't take this one for granted any more.