The most winnable race of the cycle the DSCC has ignored is the Senate race in North Carolina, where the party committee took one look at Democrat Eliane Marshall's cash on hand numbers and decided to go play elsewhere. And yes, after the second quarter, it was bleak. After her protracted primary, Marshall had less than $200,000 in the bank compared to incumbent Republican Richard Burr's $6 million.
Yet we've seen the last several cycles that the money race isn't really about who has more, but whether the challenger has enough to get his or her message out and a political environment that is receptive to that message.
In North Carolina, Burr has never established any semblance of real popularity, and as such, was always a prime target. Yet Marshall's money situation spurred Democrats to ignore Burr's weaknesses -- a decision that they may regret in two weeks:
The good news for Marshall is that she's picking up undecided voters and closing the gap against Burr. She now trails by 8 points, 48-40, after facing a 13 point deficit against Burr three weeks ago. She's starting to shore up her support with the base, getting 73% of Democrats compared to 65% in the previous poll.
And that base is getting larger as the level of interest from Democratic voters picks up with the election moving closer. In late September the likely voter pool for this year voted for John McCain by a 9 point margin, suggesting a massive drop in Democratic turnout given that Barack Obama actually won the state. Now the likely voter pool reflects an electorate that supported McCain by 4 points, still pointing to a decline in Democratic turnout but perhaps not as massive as it looked like it would be earlier in the cycle.
What changed? Like PPP notes, Democrats are coming home. And Marshall is finally on the air, after enduring seven weeks of unanswered Burr attack ads. Despite the disparity in the air war, Burr is still below 50 percent, and Marshall seems to be sucking up all the undecided votes.
Furthermore, 6.2 percent of the vote is already in thanks to North Carolina's early voting. Among the 126,899 ballots received, Democrats have cast 43.5 percent of them compared to 38.8 percent for Republicans.
This one ain't over.
Elaine Marshall for Senate