Washingtonians with landlines must be in "let the machine get it" mode after the last few days in which no less than three national polling outfits surveyed the state.
McClatchy-Marist polled both landlines and cell phones, with a 3.5 MoE and 4.0 within the cell subset. They've got Murray holding just a one point lead, 48-47 among likely voters, and a 5 point lead among all voters. They found a "major gender gap. Women supported Murray 55-41 percent, while men supported Rossi 53-41 percent," and Murray with a 17-point lead in the King County metro area. Murray actually took this part of the state by 30 points, 58-28 in the top-two primary in August, with both candidates on the ballot. A 17-point lead seems a tad slim given that result.
Let's go to PPP's poll of the state for more on why that number is suspect.
There's a pretty strong argument that the Washington Senate race is the most stable in the country: PPP finds Patty Murray leading Dino Rossi 49-47, basically identical to our July poll of the race that found her ahead 49-46.
The reason for the stability is that voters know these candidates, they know what they think of them, and nothing they've heard during this campaign has changed those opinions in one direction or the other. In July Murray's approval rating was 46/45. Now it's 47/48. In July Rossi's favorability was 43/48. Now it's 44/49. This is a race where persuasion means little and everything will hinge on who bothers to cast their ballots in the next few weeks....
In addition to being the most stagnant race in the country Washington also provides one of the most polarizing contests anywhere this year. Murray has 93% of the Democratic vote locked up while Rossi's getting 91% of the Republicans.
As I've been arguing for months, there's no room for Rossi to move, and he's sure as hell not going to gain in the Seattle metro area. However, Dems need to turn out for Murray, and she's got it. So far, they are: "One hopeful sign for Murray in the poll is that she leads 52-47 with the 14% of voters who say they've already cast their ballots." Ballots hit, at least here in Seattle, last week. That's pretty decent early turn-out among Dems.
Finally, the last poll, Rasmussen, polling likely voters and finding Murray ahead three, 49-46. Darryl at HorsesAss comments on a Rasumussen claim in the lede to the memo: "Democratic incumbent Patty Murray is barely ahead of Republican challenger Dino Rossi now as the lead seesaws again in Washington’s neck-and-neck U.S. Senate race."
The fact is, Murray has now led in the last seven of the eight polls taken in October with margins from +1 to +13 and with an (unweighted) average of just over +5%....
Note to pollsters and reporters...that meme about how close and back-and-forth this race is? Yeah...that last’s month meme based on a tiny blip in the data.
What all this means is that Murray can't let up. Particularly since all the bad, secret guys have ponied up for $2.7 million in ads for Rossi so far: "a $1.4 million ad buy from Karl Rove’s Crossroads GPS; a $750,000 ad buy from a group called American Action Network; a $300,000 ad buy from a group called Truth in Politics; and a $300,000 ad buy from the National Taxpayers Union." And Murray voters--get your ballots in so the campaign can focus its GOTV activities elsewhere.