Today, like Monday, is a data-heavy day. And that is just about where the similarities between yesterday's Wrap and today's version end. If yesterday was, on balance, a day showing marked improvement for a number of Democrats, today is the worst polling day for House Democrats in weeks, if not the cycle.
In this upside down election, perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that longtime goner (according to the CW) Chris Carney (PA-10) is suddenly up six, while longtime likely winner (again, according to the CW) Scott Murphy (NY-20) is suddenly down by almost double digits. It is that kind of a day.
The only solace: if you loathe Meg Whitman, you are going to like today's data. And you might be the only ones. We have 54 polls, and there are a lot more causes for consternation than joy as you head down the page.
THE U.S. SENATE
- California Senate (PPP):
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
- California Senate (Suffolk Univ):
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 52%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%
- California Senate (SurveyUSA):
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 45%, Carly Fiorina (R) 40%
- Connecticut Senate (Quinnipiac):
Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%
- Idaho Senate (Mason Dixon):
Sen. Michael Crapo (R) 64%, Tom Sullivan (D) 20%, Others 5%
- Indiana Senate (SurveyUSA):
Dan Coats (R) 54%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 32%
- Kentucky Senate (PPP):
Rand Paul (R) 53%, Jack Conway (D) 40%
- Maryland Senate (Baltimore Sun):
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 59%, Eric Wargotz (R) 32%
- North Carolina Senate (Civitas):
Sen. Richard Burr (R) 44%, Elaine Marshall (D) 34%, Others 4%
- Pennsylvania Senate (Ipsos/Reuters):
Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Patrick Toomey (R) 46%
- Pennsylvania Senate (Muhlenberg College):
Patrick Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 40%
THE ANALYSIS: PPP gives us the biggest eye-opener of the day, and it is a substantial buzzkill. That comes out of Kentucky, where they have Rand Paul now up double digits on Jack Conway. The analysis from PPP's Tom Jensen places pretty square blame on the "Aqua Buddha" ad. One wonders, if the sensibilities of Bluegrass State voters are really that delicate, what the events of the last 24 hours will bring to the polls (I am actually a bit of a pessimist on that score). Meanwhile, Ipsos (which has been bearish on Dem prospects in most of their work) has it all knotted up in Pennsylvania, and actually has Joe Sestak up four points among the less restrictive registered voter screen. In California, a trio of polls confirm that Senator Boxer is closing strong, as she always seems to do.
THE U.S. HOUSE
- California-20 (SurveyUSA):
Andy Vidak (R) 52%, Rep. Jim Costa (D) 42%
- California-20 (DCCC Internal Poll--D):
Rep. Jim Costa (D) 47%, Andy Vidak (R) 41%
- Florida-08 (Susquehanna--R):
Dan Webster (R) 48%, Rep. Alan Grayson (D) 41%, Others 5%
- Idaho-01 (Mason Dixon):
Rep. Walt Minnick (D) 44%, Raul Labrador (R) 41%, Others 5%
- Idaho-02 (Mason Dixon):
Rep. Mike Simpson (R) 67%, Mike Crawford (D) 17%, Others 5%
- Indiana-02 (EPIC-MRA):
Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) 48%, Jackie Walorski (R) 43%
- Indiana-03 (SurveyUSA):
Marlin Stutzman (R) 57%, Tom Hayhurst (D) 32%
- Kentucky-03 (SurveyUSA):
Rep. John Yarmuth (D) 50%, Todd Lally (R) 46%
- Kentucky-03 (Rivercity--R):
Rep. John Yarmuth (D) 41%, Todd Lally (R) 37%
- New Hampshire-01 (Guinta Internal Poll):
Frank Guinta (R) 53%, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 37%
- New Jersey-03 (Monmouth Univ):
Jon Runyan (R) 48%, Rep. John Adler (D) 43%, Others 5%
- New Jersey-03 (Rutgers Univ):
Rep. John Adler (D) 44%, Jon Runyan (R) 44%, Others 4%
- New Jersey-06 (Monmouth Univ):
Rep. Frank Pallone (D) 52%, Anna Little (R) 45%
- New Mexico-01 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Jon Barela (R) 49%, Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) 47%
- New York-20 (Siena College):
Chris Gibson (R) 51%, Rep. Scott Murphy (D) 42%
- Pennsylvania-08 (Public Opinion Strategies--R):
Michael Fitzpatrick (R) 50%, Patrick Murphy (D) 40%
- Pennsylvania-10 (Lycoming College):
Rep. Chris Carney (D) 45%, Tom Marino (R) 39%
- South Dakota-AL (Mason Dixon):
Kristi Noem (R) 45%, Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 43%, Others 3%
- Virginia-09 (SurveyUSA):
Morgan Griffith (R) 47%, Rep. Rick Boucher (D) 46%, Others 4%
THE ANALYSIS: This is, with the possible exception of PA-10, the most pessimistic pile of data that we have laid eyes on in this cycle. SurveyUSA has been bearish on Dems, sure, but even they had both Costa and Boucher leading earlier in the cycle. The erosion for Boucher (who led by as much as 15 points a while back) is particularly jarring. But even worse is the plummeting numbers for Scott Murphy, according to Siena. A Siena poll last month had Murphy up 17 last month. That is an almost unbelievable 26-point freefall in one month. The only logical conclusion--either Siena was off last month, or they are off right now. The disparity in the CA-20 numbers can be attributed to sample: the SUSA numbers anticipate just a 36% turnout of Hispanics in a district that is two-thirds Hispanic. It isn't impossible, given the itinerant turnout of California Latino voters historically (only 127,000 voters participated here in 2008, well under the state's per district average of 256,000).
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
- California Governor (PPP):
Jerry Brown (D) 53%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%
- California Governor (Suffolk Univ):
Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 42%, Others 5%
- California Governor (SurveyUSA):
Jerry Brown (D) 46%, Meg Whitman (R) 38%
- Connecticut Governor (Quinnipiac):
Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 43%
- Georgia Governor (Insider Advantage):
Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 41%, Others 5%
- Hawaii Governor (Merriman River):
Neal Abercrombie (D) 50%, Duke Aiona (R) 45%
- Idaho Governor (Mason Dixon):
Gov. Butch Otter (R) 52%, Keith Allred (D) 30%, Others 10%
- Ohio Governor (Quinnipiac):
John Kasich (R) 49%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%
- Pennsylvania Governor (Ipsos/Reuters):
Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%
- Pennsylvania Governor (Muhlenberg College):
Tom Corbett (R) 50%, Dan Onorato (D) 39%
THE ANALYSIS: On balance, this is the best of the three sets of data for the blue team. In the Golden State, Meg Whitman seems to have paid nine figures for the right to (maybe...if things go well), lose by high single digits. In Georgia, Nathan Deal loses a couple of points, raising the relatively modest odds that Roy Barnes can force the Republican into a late November runoff. Interesting data point of the day: among registered voters, the Ipsos/Reuters poll had Onorato, the Democrat, out in front by three points. Talk about a LV/RV gap!
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
It is a double-shot of the House of Ras today, as they combine their home polling with their contract services for Fox News. There is some movement towards the rest of the polling universe in these numbers, although they remain on the "Raese is leading in WV" island all to themselves.
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%*
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 48%, Carly Fiorina (R) 44%*
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 49%, Tom Foley (R) 46%
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 44%*
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%*
IL-Gov: Bill Brady (R) 44%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 39%, Others 10%*
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 43%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%, Others 7%*
KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 50%, Jack Conway (D) 43%*
MD-Sen: Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D) 56%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 45%
NM-Gov: Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 47%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%*
WV-Sen: John Raese (R) 48%, Joe Manchin (D) 46%*
WI-Sen: Ron Johnson (R) 53%, Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 46%