Taking a break from my analysis of the Senate electoral picture, tonight here is a special Governor’s edition of the Snapshot:
Competitive Gubernatorial Campaigns Chart
Margins are based on the simple average of all published polls in which the majority of interviews were conducted on or after October 8th. Only campaigns at 10.0% or closer are listed. All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com. The methodology is the same as the one used in the Senate Snapshot methodology.
Detail on Most Competitive Campaigns
Rather than overall numbers of Governor per party, the key statistic here is percentage of United States population. Unlike the House and the Senate, a party does not receive a clear prize by having the greatest number of Governors. Further, from a national perspective, the difference in population between states should be taken into account when determining the importance of Governorship to that party. For example, unlike in the Senate, having a Democratic Governor in California is much more important than having a Democratic Governor in Wyoming.
So with that in mind, it will be very difficult for Democratic Governors to represent a majority of Americans after the 2010 elections. The only path to majority Democratic control involves winning both Florida and Illinois, combined with sweeping all of the remaining lean-Democratic seats in the "Most Competitive Campaigns" chart. Victories in Florida and Ohio would allow Democrats to improve on their current representation, but not quite reach majority status.
The odds of Democrats pulling the majority off are only 1.4%, when the polling averages are viewed as independent variables (an idea which I know many people disagree with). The odds of Democrats at least improving upon their current representation are noticeably better, at around 5%. Still, since there is no chance of Democrats gaining seats in the House or the Senate, the Governor's picture has more potential upside for Democrats than the Congressional picture.
Democrats lost majority control of Gubernatorial representation back in 2009, when New Jersey and Virginia flipped to the GOP. Further, largely because of Republican control of the California Governorship, Democrats never reached the same heights among Governors that they had achieved in the House and the Senate. Democratic control of Governorships peaked at 56.4% of the national population for a couple weeks in January 2009, before Janet Napolitano resigned as Governor of Arizona to become Secretary of Homeland Security. By comparison, Democrats had 60% of the Senate for a few months in late 2009, and 59% of the House through much of 2009 and early 2010.
The biggest wildcard in my projections here is easily Florida. While Democrat Alex Sink holds a very narrow lead in the 25-day polling average, Republicans have been trouncing Democrats in early voting in Florida.With Florida representing 6% of the national population, getting Florida wrong would throw off this entire projection, and hand Republicans a decisive advantage among Gubernatorial representation. However, if Sink holds on, Democrats should maintain something pretty close to parity.
Make sure you check out Steve Singiser's excellent hour-by-hour election night guide to see when the polls close in the big Governor's races on Tuesday night.
Update: I reversed the New Hampshire numbers in the display. The Democrat is favored to win by the amount the Republican is listed here. The numbers are correct in the overall results, though.