That's a pretty good summation of the political landscape. The new WaPo poll sums up what we know, and raises questions about what we don't.
For Democrats, the good news:
Democrats have cut in half the GOP's early-September advantage on the question of which party's candidates voters say they will support on Nov. 2. They have also made small gains on the question of which party people trust to handle big issues, such as the economy and health care.
Voters give Democrats a significant edge as the party that would do a better job in helping the middle class, which has been a key campaign message from the White House in recent weeks.
President Obama's approval rating has rebounded to where it was in July after hitting an all-time low a month ago. Also, in some state races, Democratic candidates have taken the lead over their Republican opponents or narrowed GOP advantages.
The bad news:
Despite these apparent signs of improvement, the new Post-ABC poll suggests that Democrats remain at a significant disadvantage. Their hopes of holding down losses depend more on the performance of individual candidates than on dramatic changes in the overall climate.
In fact, this and every other poll says the same thing: R advantage. But the question on the table isn't that. With a recession and American preference and inclination for divided government, and with the traditional advantage for the out party in a midterm, there's little to argue about in regard to an R advantage, even if the public doesn't like Republicans and prefers Democratic handling of major issues.
But major questions remain:
- what will Dem GOTV look like?
- will the millennials show?
- does the cell phone crowd skew the polls?
- what's a likely voter?
- are the polls right?
Nate Silver has an unfinished (six part) trilogy noting that the polls are usually right, but as they say on Wall Street, past performance is no guarantee of future return. And the big question on the table:
- given the improvement in most polls for the Democrats, do they keep the House?
The smart money says no. Most non-partisan prognosticators predict a D Senate and an R House, though doubt is creeping in to the R side of the equation, and they've canned the triumphalism in favor of wait-and see.
Chris Cillizza uses WaPo data from this poll to put it this way:
Despite that near-unified opposition from Republicans, a majority -- 50 percent -- of voters overall approve of the jobs Obama is doing, numbers buoyed by some gains among independents (49 percent approve/49 percent disapprove) since the last Post/ABC survey. (Eight in ten Democrats approve of the job Obama is doing.)
Ezra simplifies it, and notes with this Gallup table at a glance who likes Obama and who doesn't. Study it, because likely voters are traditionally the bottom of the table. Dem chances are entirely linked to motivating the top of the table. And do note the Dem (79%) and liberal (75%) approval of Obama, and those 18-29 year olds (57%). Note also that independents (40%) are not moderates (54%).
Whatever the answer to the question of who controls Congress, (and we will know 11/3, and maybe even 11/2), there's no doubt the Dems are in a better position now than they were a month ago, even though they still trail. Still, approval for Congressional Dems is 36%, R's is 30% and respondents favor Dems for the economy 44-37.
No one likes Republicans, even if they win. And they haven't won until they do.