The reviews (all five of them) are in, and the new look of the Wrap has passed muster. So we press on with a new look, and it couldn't come soon enough. A numerical blizzard hits the Wrap today, with 35 polls to peruse.
The GOP goes for the big surprise with a couple of outlandish looking internal polls, while the public polling starts to look incrementally better in most cases for the Democrats. Rasmussen, meanwhile, offers its weekly double dose of data, as polls in their name, and polls via their subsidiary relationship with Fox News, hit the streets today.
All that (and more!) as we are now T-minus four weeks with the Tuesday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
- California Senate (Ipsos/Reuters):
Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%
- Colorado Senate (PPP):
Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 46%, Ken Buck (R) 45%
- Connecticut Senate (Merriman River Group):
Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 45%
- Florida Senate (Zogby):
Marco Rubio (R) 39%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%
- Illinois Senate (Fulcrum--R):
Mark Kirk (R) 42%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 33%, Others 2%
- Indiana Senate (EPIC-MRA):
Dan Coats (R) 51%, Brad Ellsworth (D) 33%, Others 5%
- Pennsylvania Senate (Muhlenberg College):
Patrick Toomey (R) 45%, Joe Sestak (D) 38%
THE ANALYSIS: Take the Illinois poll with a lot of salt: not only is it the first poll since forever to show either candidate with a lead of any size, but it is an internal for the Kirk campaign. Aside from that, we get our first poll in Indiana in a while, and it is another sign that the Industrial Midwest might be the toughest territory for the Democrats come November. Yet another poll confirms that the myth of the toss-up in Connecticut is just that...a myth. For the second or third poll in a row, the California Senate race is actually closer than the gubernatorial election, a sign either that Carly Fiorina is starting to wage a bounceback, or a sign that Meg Whitman has really hit the skids.
THE U.S. HOUSE
THE ANALYSIS: The Florida internal has to be unsettling for Democrats, as longtime incumbent Allen Boyd has not been severely tested in several cycles. This is the second such GOP poll purporting to have a double-digit lead for Southerland. The silence from the Boyd side of the polling ledger is pretty troubling. Meanwhile, Chris Carney clings to a lead in the competitive 10th district in the Keystone State, and if the new poll contracted by two Dem-friendly interest groups is legit, Tom Perriello might not be dead after all. Given that SUSA has had him getting whaled on, and Dem polls have had it within the margin of error, it is apparent that someone is going to have a lot of 'splaining to do on November 3rd.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
- California Governor (Ipsos/Reuters):
Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 43%
- California Governor (Whitman Internal Poll--R):
Jerry Brown (D) 43%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%
- Florida Governor (Susquehanna Research--R):
Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 42%
- Florida Governor (Miami-Dade College):
Rick Scott (R) 52%, Alex Sink (D) 46%
- Illinois Governor (Fulcrum--R):
Bill Brady (R) 39%, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 27%, Others 8%
- New York Governor (Siena College):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 32%
- New York Governor (PPP):
Andrew Cuomo (D) 53%, Carl Paladino (R) 38%
- Ohio Governor (Quinnipiac):
John Kasich (R) 50%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 41%
- Pennsylvania Governor (Muhlenberg College):
Tom Corbett (R) 47%, Dan Onorato (D) 36%
- Rhode Island Governor (Brown Univ.):
Frank Caprio (D) 30%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 23%, John Robataille (R) 14%
- Texas Governor (Public Strategies):
Gov. Rick Perry (R) 50%, Bill White (D) 36%
THE ANALYSIS: The Texas poll is a public poll for KENS-TV, and there appears to be a difference between "Public Strategies" and the GOP firm "Public Opinion Strategies." That is a far wider margin than any other pollster has indicated in the Lone Star State. Frank Caprio seems to be pulling out to a bit of lead in Rhode Island, but there are still a ton of undecideds there. Florida looks like it is shifting a little bit, and that is bad news for the Democrats. California is heading along the opposite vector, as evidenced from Meg Whitman's campaign hyping internal polls showing her down by "only two points."
THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA
As always, anyone needing to hear it straight from the Rassie's mouth can click the link. We get the double-up from the House of Ras today, with their main polling service and their subsidiary's spate of polls for Fox News littering the streets. Aside from a Connecticut poll which kills the "McMahon-mentum" theme, the House of Ras is mostly in their accustomed position as a Dem buzzkill. Note, however, that even the Ras-sites concede that the Maryland Governor's race is starting to get away from them.
AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 55%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%
CA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%
CO-Sen: Ken Buck (R) 50%, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 45%
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 47%, Tom Foley (R) 41%*
CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 42%*
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk (R) 45%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 41%
MD-Gov: Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) 49%, Robert Ehrlich (R) 41%
MO-Sen: Roy Blunt (R) 50%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%*
NV-Sen: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Sen. Harry Reid (D) 46%*
OH-Gov: John Kasich (R) 49%, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) 43%*
OH-Sen: Rob Portman (R) 53%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%*
WV-Sen: John Raese (R) 48%, Joe Manchin (D) 43%*
(*)--Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research Poll