Now if I were the evening news,
this would be my lead story:
As the campaign heads into its final stages, the presidential race is again extremely close. The latest Pew Research Center survey of 1,307 registered voters, conducted Oct. 15-19, finds President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry tied at 45%-45% among registered voters, and 47%-47% among likely voters.(1) These findings represent a gain in support for the Democratic challenger since early October, when he trailed the president among both likely and registered voters.
Kerry's gains in the horse race are tied more to an improving personal image than to growing strength on the issues. In particular, the Democratic challenger has virtually erased Bush's advantage for honesty and having good judgment in a crisis. Kerry is again seen as the more empathetic candidate, an advantage he held earlier in the campaign but lost after the Republican convention. Bush continues to lead by significant but narrowing margins as the stronger leader and as the candidate more willing to take an unpopular stand on the issues.
Any doubts as to who has the Mo? Lot of details... enjoy!
Want more?
Bush Approval Ratings Sag
Overall views of Bush's performance in office continue to sag. Evaluations of the president's handling of Iraq, terrorism and foreign policy moved somewhat higher in the weeks following the Republican convention, but they have returned to levels as low, or lower, as in the late spring and summer.
Currently, 44% of Americans approve of the president's job overall, while 48% disapprove. By large margins, majorities disapprove of how the president is handling Iraq (56% disapprove, 37% approve) and the economy (55%, 38%). Just under half of Americans (49%) approve of how the president is handling terrorist threats, down from 62% in early September.
Update [2004-10-20 21:59:30 by DemFromCT]:
Here's Andy Kohut's take on the poll:
"What this means is that Bush is vulnerable and it represents the potential for Kerry to win the race, if people get more comfortable with him," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.
Kerry has less than two weeks left to persuade voters that electing him isn't too risky.
The other factor mentioned in the article (risky to change leaders mid-war) is tough to quantify (must it mean a vote for Bush?). Apparently 1/3 of undecideds think it's a major risk. Based on that, I'm thinking 2/3 break for Kerry, not 80% this year.