This is just starting to hit the Twitterverse now:
Breaking News: FOX 12 Political Analyst Tim Hibbitts has just called the OR Govenor's race live on KPTV . He says Kitzhaber will win. #fb (link)
They're also posting this on their website now.
I was expecting this as of this morning (see below), but it's a relief to see it finally acknowledged in the media. Analysis, and what this means for the future of Oregon, after the jump.
The Oregonian also chimes in:
Although Republican Chris Dudley continues to hold a slim lead, mathematical calculations based on statewide voting trends show Kitzhaber is likely to overtake him and win by about 10,000 votes out of 1.4 million cast. The newspaper’s projections show Kitzhaber winning by 49 percent to 48 percent, which is outside the margin for automatic recount.
The other 3% comes from Libertarian and Constitution Party voters, with a smattering of write-in candidates.
I was actually seeing this coming this morning after seeing this morning's returns. At 9 AM we had the following votes still to be counted:
Multnomah, 68,269 uncounted;
Lane, 33,427;
Washington, 13,053;
Yamhill, 12,529;
Jackson, 10,835;
Marion, 7,110
(Source)
That left about 8500 votes in the rest of the state still uncounted.
Given the way that these counties were turning out, if they had kept up their trends at that time, it would have netted about +22000 for Kitz in Multnomah, up 5500 in Lane, no help or harm from 50-50 Washington, down 2000 in Yamhill, down 2000 in Jackson, down 1000 in Marion. Kitz was about 16000 behind by that point, and so thee numbers would have put him about 6500 ahead. He would have had to lose the rest of the state (that 8500 votes) by no worse than about 3-to-1 in order to win.
In other words, I had a lot of reason to hope. But still, I've been nervous up until this point. Now, not so much.
Kitzhaber was governor in 1995-2003, and back then he was a Democratic governor working against a Republican legislature that made the Tea Party look mainstream. Now he's working with a state legislature that, in all likelihood, will be an exact tie in both the House and the Senate. His path will be a little easier now, but he's starting with a huge budget deficit, a high unemployment rate, and an economy that hasn't grown much since 2001 -- not to mention a tired and pissed off state employees' union.
Two more things I'd like to point out for everyone's consideration.
First of all, vote by mail kicked ass this year. The count took longer than maybe it would have if we had traditional polling places, but the turnout was around 72% -- in a mid-term election. If your area has a working postal service, I strongly encourage you to push your board of elections to go this route.
Secondly, Kitzhaber won, IMO, because the Democrats cranked their base in Multnomah and Lane Counties very successfully. We have the Oregon Democratic Party and the County Parties to thank for this, but they share credit with someone who came here and energized Oregon Democrats -- that, of course, is Barack Obama. I've been on his case a lot since the health care reform bill turned into a gigantic mess, but he deserves credit for saving this state from the grief it would have suffered from an inexperienced nincompoop in Chris Dudley.