As Joan already blogged, The Catfood Commission, also known as the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, released a list of budget recommendations today. (59-page PDF) In terms of process, here is what happens next:
1. The commission will not issue a final report
While the members of the deficit commission will vote on today’s recommendations on Friday, when they do so they will just be 18 people holding a vote on something, and not the formal deficit commission created by President Obama. This is because the deficit commission ceases to exist at midnight, tonight. As commission co-chair Alan Simpson said:
To those who just wish the commission would go away, Simpson had one bit of good news: “That’s exactly what we’re going to do December 2.”
Further, the by-laws of the commission state:
The Commission shall vote on the approval of a final report containing a set of recommendations to achieve the objectives set forth in the Charter no later than December 1, 2010. The issuance of a final report of the Commission shall require the approval of not less than 14 of the 18 members of the Commission.
With the vote pushed to Friday, there will not be a final report from the commission. Instead, 18 people will simply say if they like the commission’s recommendations or not.
2. There will never be a Congressional vote on the recommendation package
Even though the commission will not issue a final report, it is still technically possible for Congress to vote on the package of recommendation put forth by the co-chairs. However, while technically possible, this also will not happen. The reason it will not happen is because this is simply a list of recommendations, and not an actual piece of legislation.
Congress has to vote on actual legislation, even when it is voting on symbolic measures like resolutions and “sense of the chamber” stuff. This is why Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said that the Senate will only vote on the package unless it came in the form of legislative language. However, since there is no legislative language to accompany the package of recommendations, and since the commission ceases to exist tomorrow, there will never be a congressional vote on this package of recommendations.
3. Congress will draw up its own budget.
The recommendation package will never be voted on. Instead, the proposals are designed to help swing the political conversation on deficits in favor of the proposals preferred by the two co-chairs, Alan Simpson and Erskine Bowles. The Associated Press paraphrases Bowles admitting as much:
Bowles says it's just as important to have jump-started a national debate on what it'll really take to bring the deficit under control.
So, what will happen is that, in the coming months, the Budget Committees of both chambers of Congress will produce their own proposals for fiscal year 2012. Whether or not this actually includes all, some, or none of the proposals in the Simpson-Bowles recommendations will be entirely coincidental. Congress is going to write this itself, and there will be an epic fight over it. The commission is ultimately immaterial, except as a spin machine and press release factory.
4. Budget Committees will likely propose more severe recommendations.
Now, even though the Budget Committees will do this themselves, and even though the deficit commission is essentially meaningless except as a press release factory, opponents of the Simpson-Bowles proposals should not be comforted. The incoming chairman of the House Budget Committee is Republican Paul Ryan, who opposes the Catfood Commission report because it isn’t cruel enough. In the Senate, the Budget committee will be chaired by North Dakota Democrat Kent Conrad, who has endorsed the Simpson-Bowles recommendations.
So, while the deficit commission is ultimately meaningless, the fight over austerity for everyone but the rich still looms large. It’s a difficult road ahead of us, and we need to steel ourselves for the fight.