Well, things were looking pretty good on the Korean peninsula until today, until, of all people, a "greenie" from a San Francisco think tank came up with the idea of bombing North Korea's nuclear reactor.
NOW.
To recap, saber-rattling has quieted down after US intel was discredited. China refused to turn off oil and food to N. Korea, and in every way but getting out the duct tape, both China and South Korea have told Bush to shut up. South Korea is shipping thousands of tons of fertilizer to stave off starvation in North Korea. These steps have seemingly gotten the Asian nations into a more constructive frame of mind.
BELOW THE JUMP: The US muddies the water
Kim Jong Il is wanting bilateral talks with Bush, to achieve a public acknowledgement that N. Korea is a sovereign country and not going to be nuked anytime soon. He and Bush have exchanged public name-calling, and I wouldn't be surprised if Kim is demanding an apology, since it was the US (Bolton) that started the juvenile exchange. Bush refuses to give Kim the recognition of bilateral talks, preferring the setting of 6 way talks. US and N. Korean envoys met this week, "at a working level," to defuse some of the tension. The N. Koreans have tenatively agreed to meet in the six way setting in June.
Korea Herald reports:
After a 10-month hiatus, the two Koreas agreed to resume cabinet-level talks and a visit next month to Pyongyang by a ministerial-level delegation headed by Chung to attend the ceremony marking the fifth anniversary of the June 15 inter-Korean summit.
The agreement, although void of any promises regarding the solution to North Korea's nuclear project, is deemed crucial in taking a step forward in inter-Korean relations which will hopefully lead to a peaceful solution to the nuclear standoff."
There is, however, one serious finger in the chili: it is difficult to interpret the "make no mistake" and "sufficient deterrence" comments by Sec. Rice (and by Scottie the dog) as anything but that the US has probably reactivated its in-theater nuclear capability, which it had removed in 1992. Exactly when this happened is hard to know; probably not long after Bush took office. Whenever it occurred, this step has now been disclosed, and markedly increases nuclear tensions in the area.
The latest US statement has backtracked to threatening that the US would take "action" if Pyongyang carried out a nuclear test.
All in all, probably an encouraging several days, at least compared to the situation two weeks ago.
So now today a new wrinkle, from an unlikely source, the respected "green" San Francisco think tank Nautilus. Peter Hayes, an expert both on North Korea's nuclear capabilities and on its need for sustainable energy development, has suggested that now might be the right time to destroy N. Korea's nuclear reactor, in which it is thought they are producing plutonium. Hayes is internationally known and not wet behind the ears. His resume and publications can be found here.
The North Koreans last month shut down the reactor and removed its 8000 fuel rods after two years of operation, apparently to start reprocessing the rods to extract the plutonium created during reactor operations.
This means a precision strike on the reactor could knock it out without risking radioactive material being blown over North Korea and neighbouring countries...
"You would hit the reactor so you could cap any future plutonium production," Hayes said.
"Even if it was refuelled, for some months you could actually hit it and there wouldn't be enough burn up of the reactor to cause a plume," Dr Hayes said.
But against the temptation for Washington hawks, Dr Hayes points to the risk of a retaliatory North Korean conventional strike across the demilitarised zone against South Korea.
In further remarks, Hays stated that the attack might actually destroy evidence of whether or not North Korea had been producing plutonium:
He also said a strike would almost certainly cause the antiquated North Korean reactor, whose core is shielded by graphite, to burn out completely,
removing a scientific record of past plutonium production.
Boy, I think Hayes intended the last section to be an argument against immediate bombing, but if I am Don "I know there were WMD's here" Rumsfeld, I might be thinking, "Here is a way to cover my trail."
Hopefully the Chinese and the Russians, not to mention the South Koreans have sufficiently dissuaded the Bushies. It seems apparent that the "Do Not Disturb" sign has been hung out on the Asian mainland. The US seems to be increasingly marginalized. Let's hope that Peter Hayes' musings don't get this hornet's nest stirred up again.
Is the Middle East next for the Chinese peacemakers????
(oh, yeah, I almost forgot: make up caption for photo and win two weeks in North Korea)