Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/22-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (10/14/09 results)
Senate
Mike Castle (R) 53 (51)
Chris Coons (D) 35 (39)
This is an open seat election to complete the remaining four years of the Senate term to which Joe Biden was reelected in 2008. Sen. Ted Kaufman (D), who was appointed by then-Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to fill the vacancy on a temporary basis, has chosen not to seek election.
Favorables, for what it's worth: Castle is at 65%-32% (was: 64%-30%); Coons 52%-25% (was: 34%-8%). Castle's favorables for a Republican in a blue state are unsurprising when you remember that Castle has served in statewide office since 1981 -- as Delaware's Lieutenant Governor, Governor, and since 1993 its lone representative in Congress. Against someone who's as much a fixture in Delaware as tax-free shopping, friendly treatment of corporations and screen door factories, New Castle County Chief Executive Chris Coons indeed has an uphill battle in store.
But First Staters have been here before. In 2000, Sen. Bill Roth was a beloved statewide incumbent seeking his sixth term in the Senate, having served as Delaware's lone representative in Congress from 1967-1970 and then in the Senate for the subsequent thirty years. His favorables were solid (53-16, according to a July Mason-Dixon poll) and his job approval that fall was a stratospheric 75%. Things like that happen when you're responsible for a popular IRA which bears your name.
And on November 7, 2000, he lost to Tom Carper by a 56%-44% margin.
See, Tom Carper was also popular -- near-identical favorables (54%-17%) and job approval numbers (75%) because he, too, was a well-known statewide figure, having served six years as State Treasurer, a decade as Delaware's lone representative in Congress, and the preceding eight years as Governor. But he also had two other advantages from which Chris Coons can benefit:
Age: Roth was 79; Carper 53. Similarly, Castle is now 70, Coons 46. And while Castle may not have the same health issues that Roth presented (he passed away in 2003), a campaign premised on "energy" and "future" and "new leadership" can certainly prevail again, though I'll confess that "energy" isn't the first thing I think of when I review Coons' first 2008 ad:
But as the numbers above make clear, Coons is well-liked, and given that he's the county executive for two-thirds of the state he's in a good place to start. Speaking of starting, Coons will be able to remind voters that Mike Castle's eighteen years in the House don't translate into seniority in the Senate; both of them will be starting from scratch, and need to build clout for the future. And then there's the other benefit Coons has.
The GOP: In reviewing some articles from the 2000 race, an anecdote from this March 20, 2000 NYT article leapt out at me:
In this state of 750,000 people, which takes pride in its moderate traditions and civil campaigns, voters seemed conflicted over the choice between Mr. Roth's experience and influence and the younger, more dynamic Mr. Carper.
"I'm torn," said Mr. Weiner, a Democrat. "Bill Roth is a sincere, decent and honest guy. If he were a Democrat, I'd support . . . him. But what really bothers me are some of his Republican colleagues, like Jesse Helms and Phil Gramm."
And that's the tone Coons should adopt, especially given Delaware's genteel political traditions (the "Delaware Way.") He ought to demonstrate due respect for Rep. Castle and his decades of service to the First State, but then pivot: a vote for Mike Castle isn't just a vote for Mike Castle -- it's a vote to put Mitch McConnell in charge of the Senate and folks like Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint and David Vitter in positions of power over the President's agenda. In a state that still holds a strongly favorable opinion of President Obama (59%-36%), it's a message which will resonate.