First off, I completely support the strategy exemplified by AdamB's current rec list diary of rewarding Democrats in tough swing districts who make the right call on issues like health care reform. If these Dems know they can look to the netroots for help during close re-election challenges, the allure of the Blue Dogs and their corporate cash will be diminished.
Having said that, I do think there's a role for sticks as well as carrots here. Depending on the degree of spinlessness observed, the most obvious sanctions at our disposal are (1) suspending all donations and volunteering for the Democrat in question, or (2) actively supporting a primary challenger.
We've seen lists on DailyKos of the 34 Democrats who voted against health care reform. But which of them most richly deserve a primary challenger? Below, I expand on a table that appeared on the front page this morning, listing the Obama presidential vote % of each Democratic "No" representative's district.
I'm still just looking at the House Dems who voted no on health care reform, but now I'm also showing how they voted on the climate bill passed by the house last year. And to get a more general perspective on each member's voting I added the 2 elements of DW-NOMINATE scores over the past 10 House sessions. The first score quantifies how economically liberal a member has voted, and the second measures voting on social issues (in both cases, more negative scores mean more liberal voting records). And, I'm still showing the Obama vote % for each member, as a measure of how liberal or conservative their district is.
Based on the above table, and using the scientifically very sophisticated "gestalt" method, I have arrived at a group that I'm calling "The Sickly Six" - anti-HCR Dems who are seriously underperforming in light of the districts they represent.
Crying out for a vertebrate primary challenger:
- Artur Davis (AL-02). Davis sticks out on this list as representing a very liberal district. But the reason for his voting pattern is pretty clear: he fancies himself the next governor of Alabama, and doesn't think he can win that race if he supports Democratic Congressional priorities. Whatever you think of that strategy, there's little to be lost from a serious primary challenge here - Republicans can't win the district, and being attacked from the left might even help Davis's gov. race. And who knows - we might end up with someone who puts a higher priority on advancing the issues we care about.
- Dan Lipinski (IL-03). One of the easiest picks for this list, Lipinski voted against HCR in spite of representing a district that gave Obama 64% of the vote. And unlike Stephen Lynch, his vote against HCR is part of a broader history of voting against the will of his progressive constituents. IL-03 is a safe district, plus it's a compact region to organize in suburban Chicago. We have nothing to lose and much to gain by retiring Lipinski.
- John Barrow (GA-12). You'd expect a Georgia Dem. with a record like Barrow's to hail from a deep red part of the state, but Obama actually took 54% in GA-12. If you're a Dem representing a Dem-leaning district, that means you should come through on big votes or expect to feel some primary pressure.
- Larry Kissell (NC-08). Kissell's profile looks a lot like Barrow's above. His district is slightly more conservative, and his general voting slightly more liberal. But he's not coming through on the big votes, so there's a lot of room for improvement here.
- Mike Arcuri (NY-24). Arcuri represents a swing district, so some departure from Barbara Lee-esque voting history might be expected here. But as gutsier swing district Rep's like Indiana's Baron Hill have shown, you can be "moderate" while still making some big plays for the team. Arcuri hasn't yet delivered much of anything yet - NO on HCR, NO on climate bill, and one of the more conservative Dem records in the house.
- Glenn Nye (VA-02). Nye's district is the most conservative of these six (PVI is Rep+5), but he hasn't yet shown us why it's better to have him in that seat than a Republican. NO on HCR, NO on climate bill, and DW-Nominate scores a lot more conservative than many Dems from deeper red districts.
You can make a case for others, of course (such as the names in yellow highlight). Lynch made news largely because he's not a very conservative Dem in general - so I wouldn't suggest primarying him at this point, but I'd certainly keep a close eye on him. You could also argue against some of the names on this list, particularly those from tougher districts, but I would argue for at least freezing any support to any of them, and watching for the right opportunity to upgrade to a vertebrate-model Democrat.
Of all 6, perhaps Lipinski and Barrow have the least excuses for failing to support HCR and other critical priorities. So how about we find a little competition for these spineless critters?