The
New York Times and CNN are both reporting that the Mosul Police Chief has been killed, and that heavy fighting is now taking place in Mosul between insurgents and U.S. and Iraqi forces. Between this wonderful news and the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing yesterday at which Rummy and Abizaid desperately tried to paint an obviously deteriorating situation in the best possible light, I'm moved to note come comparisons between the war in Iraq and earlier conflicts in our nation's history.
- From the attack on Pearl Harbor to V-J Day, the participation of the United States in World War II lasted a total of 3 years, 8 months, and 8 days. From the opening of the bombing of Baghdad in an effort to kill Saddam Hussein, 3 years, 8 months, and 8 days will expire on November 27, 2006.
- Since the President characterized the war against Iraq as a part of the global war on terror which had begun on 9/11, perhaps the better analogy is to compare the length of World War II to the length of the global war on terror. From the terrible day of 9/11/01 to today, it has now been 4 years, 10 months, and 22 days -- or more than a year longer than this country's participation in World War II.
- From the German invasion of Poland (from which most historians date the beginning of World War II) to V-J Day was 6 years and 1 day. Counting from 9/11/01, on September 12, 2007, the "global war against terror" will have lasted as long as World War II.
- By 3/7/45, the day the western allies crossed the Rhine, it was clear that World War II was winding down, and that the Axis had been defeated. Yet the President has already told us that the global war against terror in general, and the war in Iraq in particular, will continue beyond the end of his administration. Moreover, General Abizaid told the Senate Armed Services today that the sectarian violence in Baghdad has never been worse than it is right now -- in other words, things are getting worse there, not better.
- We are constantly assured that although Iraq might reach the point of civil war, it's not there yet, that right now, it's merely in some kind of a low-grade insurgency. However, the Iraqi Prime Minister has said that an average of at least 100 Iraqis per day are being killed across Iraq. That's a rate of 36,500 per year in a country with a population of 26.8 million, or a rate of about 1 fatality per 734 Iraqis per year.
- During our own Civil War, which lasted from 4/12/1861 (the shelling of Fort Sumter) to 4/9/1865 (Lee's surrender at Appomattox Courthouse), or a total of almost exactly 4 years, there were a total of 204,000 combat deaths. That's approximately 51,000 deaths per year, in a country that had a combined population (Union and Confederacy) of approximately 31.4 million at the beginning of our Civil War. That's roughly 1 death per year per 616 Americans during our Civil War.
- I would submit that when Iraqis are dying at nearly the rate that Americans did during our Civil War, we have long since passed the point where this can be characterized as some kind of a low-grade insurgency.