Every once in a while, I'm right about something. Me, on July 7, 2009:
With 14 months until the Florida Republican Senate primary in 2010, popular Gov. Charlie Crist is riding high in the polls against his challenger, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. But the current numbers are deceiving, and as counterintuitive as it might seem, Crist is likely the underdog.
You see, Crist is an anachronism in the modern GOP. He’s a moderate with a streak of social liberalism, which places him at odds with the conservative voters who will dominate the closed primary’s electorate. Crist’s strong support among Democrats and independents won’t help him with party regulars, while his centrist record will provide ample fodder for Rubio and his allies to decimate the governor’s standing with the right-wing base [...]
This is a war of attrition, and 14 months will be more than enough for the combined might of the conservative movement to grind Crist down. Republican primary voters aren’t interested in moderation or practicality, and Crist can’t deliver the ideological purity they demand. The poll numbers should tighten by the first quarter of 2010, and Crist seems likely to face the same dilemma that Sen. Arlen Specter (Pa.) wrestled with a short while ago — can he remain a Republican and win a primary?
Note, this was crazy talk when I wrote it last summer. As late as October 2009, Crist was safely above the 50 percent mark. But the dynamics of the race were obvious, they just needed to play out.
Still, it turns out I wasn't 100 percent right. I expected tied poll numbers at this stage of the game, not this:
Rubio now leads Crist 60-28, including a staggering 71-17 lead with conservatives. Crist has a 49-36 advantage with party moderates, but they account for just 31% of likely primary voters compared to 65% who describe themselves as conservative.
Rubio is benefiting from a widely held sentiment among Florida GOP voters that Congressional Republicans are too liberal and that Crist would add to the problem. 41% of them think that the party leadership in Washington is too liberal, and with those folks Rubio holds an 83-10 lead. 50% think that Crist himself is too liberal and with those voters Rubio's advantage expands even wider to 90-5.
Nate Silver offers four options for Crist, and determines that going indie is his best option. But Nate inexplicably leaves off Crist's most obvious option: become a Democrat.
Our general election Senate numbers, which we'll release tomorrow, find that Crist is a good deal more popular with Democrats now than he is with Republicans. His path to any future electoral victory may come as an independent or perhaps even as a Democrat.
I've written it before, I'll write it again: there are only two candidates who can win that Senate seat in November -- Rubio and Crist. And Crist won't do it as a Republican. As a Democrat, he has a fighting chance.