A spectacular bit of stupidity slaying from Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight today.
The context: a study produced by the Mercatus Center at George Mason Unveristy claims that congressional districts which elected a Democrat to the Congress received a larger amount of stimulus finds by a margin which is statistically significant even after controlling for certain other effects like the unemployment rate.
The Mercatus Center is a distinctly right-leaning entity, The author, Veronique de Rugy, was previously a the American Enterprise Institute. She writes a column for Reason magazine and also blogs at The Corner at National Review Online.
Enter Nate:
However, the study does not control for at least one other variable that is overwhelmingly important in determining the dispensation of stimulus funds.
The variable in question is in fact pretty obvious if you simply look at the districts that have received the largest amount of stimulus money, according to de Rugy's dataset.
The denouement is quite amusing - click over now and read it for yourself, because I'm about to spoil it with the next sentence:
The districts that got the most money are all home to state capitals.
A lot of stimulus funds are distributed to state agencies, which are then responsible for allocating and administering the funds to the presumed benefit of citizens throughout the state. These state agencies, of course, are usually located in or near the state capital.
It is so funny you would almost think the original "study" was an April Fool's joke.
Bravo, Nate. The time you spend thinking about politics may be baseball's loss but it is the nation's gain.