A lot of polling data (most of it decidedly sucky) and a handful of campaign stories grace the mid-week edition of the Wrap.
THE U.S. SENATE
LA-Sen: Right-Wing Indie Could Shake Up Senate Race
After dodging the Stormy Daniels bullet (for those who missed it, she decided last week not to run for the GOP Senate nomination), Republican freshman Sen. David Vitter wound up picking up a potential problem--an Independent challenge to his right. The man in question is named Mike Spears, and he owns a computer services firm. Spears is affiliated with the Tea Party movement, and is realistic about what he needs to run a credible race, saying he'll need $4 million to be competitive.
NH-Sen: New Poll Has Ayotte With Modest Lead on Hodes
Finally, someone other than Rasmussen polls the Granite State, to give us some comparison data on one of the few GOP open Senate seats that could prove competitive by the Fall. In their new poll, the crew at PPP finds presumptive GOP frontrunner Kelly Ayotte leading Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes by a modest 47-40 margin. Wealthy self-financer Bill Binnie also would have a lead on Hodes (46-41), but Hodes starts out with a small edge over either Republicans Jim Bender (43-40) or right-wing favorite Ovide Lamontagne (43-38). Ayotte's status as frontrunner seems justified, given the wide lead that PPP found in a GOP primary trial heat. Ayotte led with 43% of the vote, well ahead of second-plance Bill Binnie, back at 19%.
WA-Sen: Senate Dems Prepping For Rossi Challenge, Even As He Wavers
Probably a smart pre-emptive strike: according to National Journal, the DSCC is sending researchers into Washington State looking for potential nuggets against former GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi. Rossi is the only GOPer within range of Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, and he has been incredibly coy about his ambitions for 2010. The other Republicans in the field have been less coy, basically demanding that Rossi either shit or get off the pot, as it is inhibiting their campaigns to have such a potentially big player vacillating about the race. Even NRSC Chair John Cornyn got into the act, suggesting that Rossi move his decision-making process along.
THE U.S. HOUSE
NY-29: Conservative Polling Firm Sees Likely Flip in Massa Seat
Relative polling newcomers "We Ask America", whose claim to fame thus far appears to be trying to out-Rasmussen Rasmussen, has the first numbers we have seen in upstate New York, where Democrat Eric Massa resigned several weeks ago. They have Republican Tom Reed leading Democrat Matthew Zeller in a potential matchup by seventeen points (41-24). In Zeller's defense, the twenty-something Democrat is a virtual unknown in the district, while Reed has been an elected officeholder in the district for some time.
PA-12: Close Race In Brutal Dem Climate, According to Two Polls
A few days ago on the Wrap, I expressed a good deal of consternation about the tack to the right taken by special election nominee Mark Critz in his battle against Republican nominee Tim Burns. Well, the first public polling in the race makes clear why Critz went there. In most polling we've seen, the President's approval ratings fall around 4-8 points below his 2008 vote share. In the Pennsylvania 12th, his approval numbers are sixteen points below his '08 vote total in the district (33%). Nevertheless, Critz is hanging in there, trailing Republican Tim Burns by just three points (44-41). Critz does even better, oddly enough, in a GOP-sponsored poll by McLaughlin. There, the Democrat leads by a single point (40-39), despite Barack Obama having just a 31% job approval rating in that poll.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CA-Gov: Is Whitman Starting to Come Down to Earth?
Later, in the Ras-a-palooza, you will see new data from every Republican's favorite pollster that shows Whitman now trailing Democrat Jerry Brown. But even the Republican frontrunner's own internal data is hinting at trouble in paradise. After leading by as many as 50 points in previous GOP primary trial heats, Whitman's lead over GOP state insurance commissioner Steve Poizner is down to thirty-one points (55-24). Other internals have had it even tighter. Now, while there has been significant movement, a 20-30 point lead is still...well...a 20-30 point lead. It will take a lot more than that to deny Whitman the GOP nomination. Whether she remains the general election frontrunner, however, is entirely another matter.
TN-Gov: Dems Have Their Nominee, So Will They Play in GOP Primary?
Interesting column over the weekend (hat tip:DC's Political Report) about the potential for mischief in the Tennessee Governor's race. You see, only one Democrat filed for the office (Mike McWherter). Therefore, Democrats could try to cross over (which is easy to do in the Volunteer State) and pick the Republican they perceive as the weakest candidate for the GOP. For what it's worth, columnist Gail Kerr doesn't think it will happen, and she outlines some pretty solid reasons why.
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Rasmussen, in their latest trio of polls, continue a fairly recent trend--mixing in a surprisingly favorable result for Democrats with their typical mass of "hey, the Republicans are doing swell" data points.
This time, the surprisingly good result for Dems comes from California, where it will be interesting to see if Ras is ahead of the curve in foreshadowing a bit of a backlash against Meg Whitman.
In Florida, they also see a significant tightening in the gubernatorial race. Is it possible that being out in front on the HIR lawsuit is hurting presumptive GOP frontrunner Bill McCollum? Hard to say, but he went high-profile on that issue in the past few weeks, and his numbers have sunk like a stone.
Ras is true-to-form in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, where they continue to be the only pollster who sees no peril for freshman Republican Richard Burr.
AZ-Gov: Gov. Jan Brewer (R) 44%, Terry Goddard (D) 40%
AZ-Gov: John Munger (R) 44%, Terry Goddard (D) 37%
AZ-Gov: Buz Mills (R) 46%, Terry Goddard (D) 37%
AZ-Gov: Dean Martin (R) 47%, Terry Goddard (D) 34%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 44%, Meg Whitman (R) 38%
CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Steve Poizner (R) 32%
FL-Gov: Bill McCollum (R) 45%, Alex Sink (D) 38%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 50%, Elaine Marshall (D) 32%
NC-Sen: Sen. Richard Burr (R) 53%, Cal Cunningham (D) 31%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 45%, Dan Onorato (D) 36%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Joe Hoeffel (D) 29%
PA-Gov: Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Jack Wagner (D) 27%