The mid-week edition of the Wrap is a pretty big reservoir of suck this Wednesday. Ugly polls out of Illinois, Wisconsin, and Michigan, and the almighty Ras had nothing to do with any of them!
Ras does its part, of course, with ugly Dem numbers in places like Connecticut and Nevada. All that, and more, graces the Wednesday edition of the Wrap...
THE U.S. SENATE
IL-Sen: PPP Finds Giannoulias Now Trailing, But A Ton of Undecideds
PPP, which is one of the more trusted pollsters in the game, is a huge killjoy in the Land of Lincoln this week. Not only do they feature an absolutely brutal poll in the gubernatorial race (more on this later), but they also find that Illinois Republican Mark Kirk is now leading Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by four points (37-33). If there is any silver lining for Giannoulias, it is that there are far more Democrats undecided than Republicans. Another possible ray of light--the poll had Barack Obama with a curiously low approval rating for his home state (50/42). Will the hometown President still have approval ratings that middling in November? It's possible, but a little hard to believe.
PA-Sen: Two new polls say Specter Up in Primary, Down in General
Two separate polls emerge from Pennsylvania, and they largely confirm other recent polls out of the state. A new primary poll from Quinnipiac has Senator Arlen Specter ahead of primary rival Joe Sestak (53-32). There is some good news for Sestak; he still has considerable upside (his favorabilities are 33/6, with 58% unable to form an opinion). Furthermore, his supporters are a bit more devoted: two-thirds of Sestak voters are committed to their man, versus just 58% of Specter voters. In the general election, both men are within striking distance of likely GOP standard bearer Pat Toomey, according to PPP. Specter is slightly closer (he trails Toomey 46-43), but Sestak puts more undecideds into play (he trails Toomey 42-36).
WI-Sen: Is Feingold Really Down Double Digits?
That's what a new poll by St. Norbert College seems to think. The new poll by the academic outfit says that if former Governor Tommy Thompson gets into the fray, he'll have a twelve-point lead over incumbent Democratic Senator Russ Feingold (45-33). In other Wisconsin Senate news, a Republican got into the race today not named Thompson. Instead, it was Wisconsin Commerce Secretary Richard Leinenkugel, who will have to start by building some Republican street cred after working for Democratic Governor Jim Doyle. Not surprisingly, his opponents levelled their fire at Leinenkugel from the get-go, focusing on his role in the Doyle administration.
THE U.S. HOUSE
FL-19: Is GOP Hopeful Sensing An Implausible Upset In Blue Territory?
There is an election next week, although it has flown largely under the radar. The locale is southern Florida, where a successor to Democratic Rep. Robert Wexler will be elected in an April 13th runoff election. Democrat Ted Deutch is being challenged by Republican Ed Lynch and conservative Independent candidate Jim McCormick. Lynch thinks he has a shot, because the district is 40% elderly voters, and he thinks health reform gives him a foothold. The district, aside from being older than average, is also considerably more Democratic than average (Obama carried the 19th with 65% of the vote, and Wexler was re-elected without staunch challenge). An upset here would be a shocker of a far greater magnitude than that which was visited upon Democrats in January in Massachusetts.
MA-09: Possible Lynch Primary Challenger Dissuaded From Challenge
In what has to be disappointing news for progressives in Massachusetts who were seeking to hold Rep. Stephen Lynch accountable for his "no" vote on HIR a few weeks back, Harmony Wu, a Democrat who made overtures towards a primary challenge to Lynch, decided against a primary bid today. That leaves Lynch unopposed on the Democratic side for now, although the filing deadline in the Bay State does not close until June.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
GA-Gov: GOP Field Gets Murkier, Says New Poll
While there may be little doubt about who will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Georgia this year (that would be former Governor Roy Barnes, a new Insider Advantage poll in Georgia finds GOP state insurance commissioner John Oxendine's once-unassailable lead slowly dissipating. Oxendine still leads, but he now leads with just 26% of the vote, and his lead is down to single digits. Karen Handel now sits at 18% of the vote. Congressman Nathan Deal's ethics issues might be dinging him--once in second place, he is now a distant third with just 9% of the vote. On the Democratic side, Barnes leads easily, enjoying 47% of the vote. His nearest rival, state AG Thurbert Baker, trails well behind at 18%.
IL-Gov: PPP Illinois Poll Also Has GOP Up Handily in Gov Race
Just as with the Senate poll, there is a lot to be concerned about with PPP's poll on the gubernatorial side in Illinois. The toplines, for one thing, are brutal--PPP has Republican Bill Brady up double digits on incumbent Democrat Pat Quinn (43-33). Further brutality: according to PPP, Quinn's approval rating is an absolutely abysmal 25/53 spread. One caveat: this is presuming an awfully Republican electorate. Obama won the state by 25 points, but only leads in this sample by fifteen points. Of course, given what many polls have shown regarding the "enthusiasm gap", that might be plausible.
MI-Gov: Respected Local Pollster Has GOP Up Big In Michigan
EPIC-MRA, which is one of the better-known outfits in polling Michigan politics, is out with their latest numbers on the competitive open-seat governors race in Michigan. They are pretty tough for the Democrats, although there might be some serious silver linings for Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero. The poll shows Bernero in second place to conservative House Speaker Andy Dillon in the Democratic Primary poll (22-15), with Alma Wheeler Smith a bit further behind (11%). In an informed ballot test (which is best ignored in internal polling, but is a decent indicator in public polling of races with candidates who are basically unknown), however, Bernero surged into the lead, leading Dillon by five points (29-24, with Wheeler Smith also surging to 20%).
On the GOP side, Congressman Peter Hoekstra leads both the standard trial heat and the informed trial heat, albeit by a modest margin, over leading opponents Mike Cox and Rick Snyder.
In the general election test, Bernero has made up ground since the last EPIC-MRA poll on both Cox and Hoekstra. Whereas those two gentlemen led Bernero by 22 and 18 points, respectively, in January, those leads have now been shaved by several points (he trails Cox 44-30, and Hoesktra 42-29). Dillon, conversely, trails both men by slightly more than he did during the last EPIC-MRA poll (though he is within single digits of both of them).
PA-Gov: Corbett Still Leads In Keystone State, Says PPP
PPP's numbers are not quite as pessimistic in Pennsylvania as they were in Illinois, but that would not classify them as "good" numbers, either. They have GOP Attorney General Tom Corbett leading the quartet of possible Democratic challengers by margins ranging from 13-18 points. Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (45-32) and state auditor Jack Wagner (43-30) come the closest. Also worth noting, far more Democratic undecideds exist than Republicans, probably owing to the competitive primary on the Democratic side. Quinnipiac polls that primary this week, and find undecided out in front. Among those who had a favorite in the race, Onorato (20%) leads Hoeffel (15%) and Wagner (13%) narrowly. A majority of Democratic voters, however, say they have not committed irreversibly to their candidate of choice. Meanwhile, the battle on the GOP side is a non-starter, with Corbett leading state legislator Sam Rohrer by a 58-7 margin.
WI-Gov: St. Norbert Poll Also Bullish on GOP in Gov's Race
If you thought the Feingold-Thompson numbers from St. Norbert College were a bit ugly, they pale in comparison to the gubernatorial numbers. They have Democratic frontrunner Tom Barrett (the mayor of Milwaukee) down double-digits to either Republican candidate. According to the poll, Barrett trails Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker by sixteen points (44-28), while also trailing former Congressman Mark Neumann by fourteen points (43-29). They also polled the primary, and found a toss-up, with Walker leading Neumann by just a single point (24-23).
THE RAS-A-PALOOZA
Rasmussen becomes the first pollster to see the GOP winning the Connecticut Governor's race, and they are also the first pollster to see embattled Nevada GOP Governor Jim Gibbons with a lead on presumptive Democratic nominee Rory Reid. They also preach the status quo in Massachusetts, where a split opposition might pull vulnerable Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick across the finish line.
If you want the full hokey-pokey, go to the House of Ras directly.
CT-Gov: Thomas Foley (R) 44%, Ned Lamont (D) 37%
CT-Gov: Thomas Foley (R) 44%, Dan Malloy (D) 35%
CT-Gov: Ned Lamont (D) 41%, Michael Fedele (R) 38%
CT-Gov: Dan Malloy (D) 40%, Michael Fedele (R) 37%
KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 50%, Jack Conway (D) 36%
KY-Sen: Rand Paul (R) 52%, Dan Mongiardo (D) 37%
KY-Sen: Trey Grayson (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 32%
KY-Sen: Trey Grayson (R) 53%, Dan Mongiardo (D) 33%
MA-Gov: Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 35%, Charlie Baker (R) 27%, Tim Cahill (I) 23%
MA-Gov: Gov. Deval Patrick (D) 38%, Tim Cahill (I) 33%, Christy Mihos (R) 15%
NV-Gov: Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 34%
NV-Gov: Michael Montandon (R) 45%, Rory Reid (D) 38%
NV-Gov: Gov. Jim Gibbons (R) 45%, Rory Reid (D) 43%