Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/10-12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (3/15-17 results)
Democratic primary, likely Democratic voters, MoE 5%
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 39 (47)
Jack Conway (D) 36 (31)
Other 10 (7)
Undecided 15 (15)
What a stunning collapse for Mongiardo. Now, Conway has a few more days to try and close the deal. This one will be a nail biter.
Among likely Democratic primary voters, Mongiardo has a favorability rating of 63-30, compared to Conway's 66-26, so fairly evenly matched. Mongiardo has stronger support among men, Conway among women.
Republican primary, likely Republican voters, MoE 5%
Rand Paul (R) 45 (40)
Trey Grayson (D) 35 (28)
Other 7 (14)
Undecided 13 (18)
Grayson has actually narrowed the gap slightly from last poll, but not enough to make it a tight race. A double-digit deficit this close to the election will be tough to overcome. And let's just say that Paul's supporters are the kind that would crawl over broken glass to get to the polls.
It's a good thing that Paul looks set to win this one...
General election matchups
Trey Grayson (R) 42
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 36
Rand Paul (R) 43
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 38
Trey Grayson (R) 43
Jack Conway (D) 35
Rand Paul (R) 42
Jack Conway (D) 39
Both Democrats (and with Mongiardo, I use the term "Democrat" loosely) run stronger against Paul. And given Paul's hostility to Mitch McConnell (including a threat to vote for another Republican -- likely Jim DeMint -- as Senate party leader), one wonders how strongly the state's GOP establishment will work for Paul, when they could see Conway or Mongiardo as a one-termer.
Kentucky is definitely a "repeal" health care reform law state, with 58 percent preferring the repeal candidate to the 33 percent who prefer a supporter. Obama has a brutal 38-59 favorability rating in the state.
On the other hand, outgoing senile Sen. Jim Bunning's favorability is 39-52, and even Mitch McConnell is underwater at 43-49. Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear is at 47-44. Tepid, sure, but at least in positive territory. Mongiardo, the Lt. Governor, is at a similar 47-42. Jack Conway, the attorney general, is at 46-44.
The GOP's biggest advantage in the Senate race is the popularity of their two candidates. Trey Grayson is at 52-27, while Rand Paul is at 56-27. It'll be much easier to bring Paul's numbers down, particularly given his disparaging of Kentucky's coal industry (which may be right on the merits, broken clocks and all, but terrible politics in this coal-centric state).