56.8 reporting
Lincoln 43.4
Halter 42.4
Morrison 14.2
The gap is just 2,000 votes.
Why does a runoff matter? Let's see what happened in Arkansas, in a similar situation, on May 19, 1998:
Blanche Lincoln 140,825 45.4%
Winston Bryant 85,066 27.4%
Scott Ferguson 43,351 14.0%
Nate Coulter 40,895 13.2%
Total votes: 310,137
Then three weeks later, in the runoff:
Blanche Lincoln 132,032 62.8%
Winston Bryant 78,192 37.2%
Total votes: 210,224
That's a drop off of about a third of voters, and it's the most motivated who turn out in a runoff. And who are the most motivated? The rebels, the insurgents, the rabble rousers -- those most motivated to give the unpopular incumbent her walking papers.