Okay, it's been a hectic night and I'm beat, so this is my last post. To recap:
Kentucky:
99.5 of precincts reporting
Conway (D) 44.1
Mongiardo (D) 43.0
Paul (R) 58.5
Grayson (R) 35.4
I predicted Conway 46, Mongiardo 44, and Paul 51, Grayson 41. I did pretty good on the (D) side, shitty on the (R) side.
Oh, and Rand Paul refused to take the concession call from Grayson, showing he remains all class.
Pennsylvania:
99 of precincts reporting
Sestak 53.9
Specter 46.1
I predicted Sestak 52, Specter 48. Again, not too shabby.
Pennsylvania 12th special election:
99.2 of precincts reporting
Critz (D) 53
Burns (R) 45
I predicted Critz 50.1, Burns 49.9. I NEVER would've believed an 8-point victory was in the cards. You've got to hand it to the DCCC. Their field team delivered. And the GOP remains shut out of special election contests this cycle, including several in prime competitive territory.
HI-01 will break that streak this Saturday, but that's a temporary pickup against a split Dem field. Dems will retake the seat in November.
Arkansas:
91.3 of precincts reporting
Lincoln 44.6
Halter 42.4
Morrison 13.0
On the GOP side, Boozman won his primary outright. Too bad, since he runs strongest against the two Dems. But Boozman makes a better foil against Halter, once our guy wraps things up in three weeks. Halter will be able to run a populist anti-DC campaign against the congressman who has been in DC for over a decade. That's not a place I'd want to be if I were the Republicans.
So let's see, I predicted Lincoln 47, Halter 42, Morrison 11. I'll take that. I didn't think Morrison would hold on to this much support. Usually the third wheels fade in the end, but not Morrison. Meanwhile, Lincoln is a long way from 50 percent, the momentum is on Halter's side, the anti-incumbent vote is strong, and the lower-turnout runoff will have an even more disproportionately activistic voter base.
On the GOP side, I predicted Boozman 47 and Holt 20. Right now, Boozman has 53 and Holt has 17.2. Not terrible, but not great. Turns out I have a harder time calling the wingnut contests than I do our own. And really, I don't find much shame in that.
Goodnight all. It was a good one. The intensity gap was nowhere to be found, and the GOP couldn't pick up the lowest of low-hanging fruit. And really, we gave the establishment a serious beating. And no joke, it's for their own good.
So let's make sure we have more nights like tonight: